|
No Changes In U.S. Rice Crop Forecast This Month
There were no revisions to the 2014/15 U.S. rice crop forecasts this month. The crop remains projected at 213.0 million cwt (rough-basis), up 12 percent from a year earlier and the largest since the 2010/11 record crop.
The 2014/15 average yield remains projected at 7,468 pounds per acre, down 3 percent from a year earlier, but still the second highest on record.
By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain crop remains projected at 161.0 million cwt, an increase of 22 percent from a year earlier and the largest since the 2010/11 record long-grain crop. Combined medium- and short-grain production in 2014/15 remains projected at 52.0 million cwt, a decline of 10 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09.
Despite heavy rains early in the season in much of the South, the U.S. crop progress is slightly ahead of normal in most parts of the country, with planting complete in all reported rice growing States.
Conditions of the 2014/15 rice crop remain higher than last year across the South. For the week ending June 8, 69 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good or excellent condition, compared with 62 percent a year earlier.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected To Increase 8 Percent
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 267.3 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent above a year earlier.
The beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 was raised 3.0 million cwt to 32.3 million cwt, still 11 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2009/10. The revision was the result of changes to the 2013/14 balance sheet.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 22.0 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier and second only to the 2007/08 record of 23.9 million cwt. Long-grain imports remain projected at 19.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 3.0 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier, but still slightly above the 2009/10- 2012/13 average.
U.S. 2014/15 Exports Remain Forecast at 102.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 230.0 million cwt, up almost 7 percent from the year-earlier revised estimate. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be higher in 2014/15 than in 2013/14. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 173.0 million cwt, an increase of 13 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2010/11. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, total use is projected at 57.0 million cwt, a decline of nearly 10 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 128.0 million cwt, up 4.0 million cwt from a year earlier. The increase is based on a larger U.S. crop and a slightly larger population. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 101.0 million cwt, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 102.0 million cwt, up almost 11 percent from a year earlier. The increase in U.S. exports is based on larger supplies and expectations of more competitive U.S. prices, with U.S. sales likely to be larger in 2014/15 to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, two key markets where the United States competes with Asian exporters.
Long-grain U.S. exports remain projected at 72.0 million cwt, an increase of 16 percent from a year earlier.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 68.0 million cwt, up 12 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 37.3 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and nearly 16 percent larger than a year earlier.
The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 8.7 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but 19 percent smaller than a year earlier.
2013/14 U.S. Export Forecast Lowered to 92.0 Million Cwt
There were no revisions to the 2013/14 supply side estimates this month. On the use side, the 2013/14 U.S. export forecast was lowered 3.0 million cwt to 92.0 million cwt based on shipment data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau through April, shipment and sales data reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales through May 29, and expectations regarding shipments for the remainder of the market year.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough-rice basis) are projected at 60.5 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 17 percent below a year earlier. Combined milled and brown rice exports are the lowest since 2006/07.
U.S. 2013/14 long-grain exports are projected at 62.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month’s forecast and 18 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest U.S. long-grain exports since 1996/97.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2013/14 are forecast at 30.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 3 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest medium- and short-grain U.S. rice exports since 2008/09.
U.S. Season-Average Farm Price Forecasts Lowered for 2013/14 and 2014/15
The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.80-$13.80 per cwt, down 70 cents on both the high and low end from last month’s forecast. The 2014/15 SAFP for long-grain rice is below the revised $15.10-$15.70 per cwt forecast for 2013/14 and is the lowest since 2010/11.
The lower expected U.S. SAFP in 2014/15 is based on larger U.S. supplies and expected lower global trading prices. The high- and low-end of the 2013/14 SAFP was lowered 10 cents this month based on monthly cash prices and marketings through April and expectations of prices and marketings the remainder of the market year. ∆
|
|