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2014 Is Fifth Year Of Higher Global Production
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at a record 480.7 million tons (milled basis), up 1 percent from a year earlier. Record production is projected for East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to harvest a near-record crop.
The record global crop in 2014/15 is the result of expanded area. At a record 161.6 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is up 0.7 million hectares from a year earlier. The average global yield, forecast at 4.44 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), is up about 1 percent from 2013/14 and just fractionally below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.
East Asia remains the largest rice producing region in the world and is forecast to produce a record 158.8 million tons of rice in 2014/15. China, the world’s largest rice growing country, is projected to harvest a record 144.0-million ton crop, a result of both expanded area and a near-record yield. In contrast, Japan’s 2014/15 production is projected to decline about 2 percent to 7.7 million tons based on smaller area and a decrease to a more typical yield.
Among the region’s importers, Venezuela’s 2014/15 projected crop of 390,000 tons is fractionally above 2013/14, but well below levels achieved prior to 2010/11. At 1.3 million tons, Colombia’s 2014/15 production forecast is virtually unchanged from 2013/14, but, like that of nearby Venezuela, is well below levels achieved prior to 2010/11. Peru is projected to harvest a near-record 2.1 million tons, almost 3 percent below the year-earlier record. Ecuador is projected to harvest 0.8 million tons of rice in 2014/15, nearly unchanged from a year earlier but well below the record of almost 1.0 million tons achieved in 2004/05.
Elsewhere in the world, Egypt is projected to harvest a record 4.9 million tons of rice in 2014/15, slightly above a year earlier, a result of record area. Australia’s 2014/15 production is projected to increase 6 percent to 690,000 tons based on a return to a normal yield. Both Egypt and Australia are major exporters of medium- and short-grain rice and they typically achieve the highest yields in the world. EU production is projected to increase 1 percent to 1.96 million tons based on a slightly higher yield. Finally, the 2014/15 U.S. crop of 6.8 million tons is 11 percent above a year earlier, a result of an area expansion.
There were three significant production revisions for 2013/14. First, Cambodia’s 2013/14 production estimate was lowered 175,000 tons to 4.73 million tons based on larger than expected flood losses to the main season harvest and a smaller dry season area than last year. Second, Nepal’s 2013/14 production was raised 0.3 million tons to a record 3.3 million tons based on a higher yield. Finally, the Philippines’ 2013/14 production forecast was raised 0.25 million tons to 11.9 million tons based on Government data indicating higher area from January-June 2014.
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.2 million tons, an increase of 1.5 percent from a year earlier and 1.5 million tons larger than 2014/15 production.
Global Rice Trade in 2015 Is Projected To Be the Highest on Record
Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.3 million tons, up 1 percent from 2014. The increased trade level is largely based on record imports by Sub-Saharan Africa and China, slightly lower global trading prices, and abundant exportable supplies in Asia and the Western Hemisphere.
Thailand is projected to be the largest rice exporter in 2015, shipping 10.0 million tons of rice, up 1.0 million from this year and the highest since the record 10.6 million tons shipped in 2011.
On the import side, starting with East Asia, China is projected to import a record 3.7 million tons of rice in 2015, up 0.5 million tons from 2014. The increase is based on stronger demand, slight production growth, and much lower prices for imports.
There were only small revisions for 2014 global trade. On the export side, the U.S. forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.2 million tons based on a recent slowdown in sales. Also, Egypt’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 800,000 tons based on recommendations for the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. On the import side, Nepal’s 2014 imports were lowered 0.1 million tons to 0.25 million based on a larger crop.
Thailand’s Prices Fall on Continued Government Sales; Vietnam’s Prices Rise
Prices for higher grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice are down 1-2 percent from a month earlier, largely due to continued sales of Government stocks. Prices for medium- and lower-quality grades of milled-rice shipments are down 1-3 percent from a month earlier. Prices for aromatic rice have decreased over the past month as well.
Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $399 per ton for the week ending May 5, down $5 from the week ending April 7. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $379 per ton for the week ending May 5, down $3 from the week ending April 7. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $404 per ton for the week ending May 5, down $9 from the week ending April 7.
Price quotes from Vietnam have increased over the past month. For the week ending May 6, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $395 per ton, up $10 from April 8. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $16 per ton below quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, making Thailand a competitive seller. Thailand’s prices typically exceed prices for similar grades of rice from Vietnam by around $50 per ton.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice remain unchanged from a month earlier. For the week ending May 6, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $584 per ton, unchanged from a month earlier. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect a free-on-board vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $200 per ton, the highest on record and well above the long-term average of around $50 per ton. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $380 per ton for the week ending May 6, unchanged since late September. ∆
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