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Exports Surpass Imports 10th Consecutive Month
U.S. beef exports were up 3.2 percent in February compared to a year ago thanks to increased shipments to Japan, Mexico and Hong Kong. Imports of beef into the U.S. were down 2.0 percent in February with less beef coming in from Brazil, Uruguay, and Mexico. During February, beef exports equaled 10.22 percent of production and imports equaled 9.56 percent of production. This was the tenth consecutive month with exports greater than imports, which is encouraging given that U.S. beef prices are at record levels.
Cattle imports were up 0.3 percent in February with fewer coming north from Mexico, but more coming south from Canada.
Domestic meat demand in February was up 2.7 percent with beef demand up 0.6 percent compared to a year ago. Export demand for U.S. beef was up 10.7 percent in February.
The April WASDE raised both USDA’s forecast of 2014 beef production and their price forecast for the year. They now predict 2014 beef production will be down 4.5 percent from last year to the lowest level since 2004. Their forecast for fed cattle prices is for the average to be somewhere between $144/cwt and $151/cwt. That is far above last year’s record of $125.89/cwt.
Fed cattle sales were extremely light again this week. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $149.32/cwt, down $2.11 from last week’s record price, but up $22.09 from a year ago. The 5 area average dressed price for steers was $240.39/cwt.
Boxed beef prices were lower again this week. This morning the boxed beef cutout value for choice carcasses was $222.27/cwt, down $6.90 from the previous Friday. The select carcass cutout is $212.96/cwt, down $5.49 from last week.
This week’s cattle slaughter totaled 573,000 head, down 1.7 percent from the previous week and down 5.6 percent from the corresponding week last year. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on March 29 was 852 pounds, down 4 pounds from the week before, but up 1 pound from a year earlier.
Feeder cattle prices at this week’s Oklahoma City auction were mostly steady to $3 higher than the week before. This week’s prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight were: 400-450# $210-$255.50, 450-500# $220-$244, 500-550# $207-$224, 550-600# $198-$223, 600-650# $186-$215, 650-700# $180-$207.50, 700-750# $173.50-$187, 750-800# $167-$179, 800-900# $161-$174, and 900-1000# $154-$163/cwt.
Cattle futures were higher this week. The April live cattle futures contract closed at $144.85/cwt today, up $1.80 from last week’s close. June fed cattle settled at $135.77, up 97 cents for the week. August settled at $133.77/cwt, up $1.50 from the previous Friday. October cattle closed at $138.22/cwt.
Feeder cattle futures were also higher for the week. The April feeder cattle contract ended the week at $179.50/cwt, up $1.80 for the week. May feeders closed at $180.07/cwt, up $1.57 from the previous Friday.∆
DR. RON PLAIN AND DR. SCOTT BROWN: Agricultural Economists, University of Missouri
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