|
Production Forecasts For 2013/14 Raised For Burma, China, And India
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 474.8 million tons (milled basis), up 3.2 million tons from last month’s forecast and almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier. On a year-to-year basis, South Asia and Southeast Asia are projected to produce record rice crops, with near-record crops projected for East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The bumper global crop is the result of expanded area in 2013/14. At a record 160.6 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up 0.5 million hectares from last month’s forecast and 2.4 million hectares from a year earlier.
There were several significant upward revisions to 2013/14 crop forecasts this month. First, India’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 2.0 million tons to 105.0 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in New Delhi indicating higher than expected kharif crop rice yields due to good weather. In nearby Burma, the 2013/14 production forecast was raised almost 1.0 million tons to a record 12.0 million based on a higher area estimate developed by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.
In East Asia, China’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 0.8 million tons to 142.3 tons based on Government data indicating slightly higher area and yield estimates. Outside Asia, Peru’s 2013/14 crop was raised 121,000 tons to a record 2.16 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Lima reporting a record yield. Argentina’s 2013/14 production was raised 33,000 tons to 1.01 million based on a higher area estimate.
Global rice production in 2012/13 is estimated at 471.5 million tons, up 2.0 million tons from the previous forecast and 1 percent larger than a year earlier. There were two significant upward revisions this month. First, Burma’s 2012/13 crop estimate was raised 1.05 million tons to 11.72 million tons based on a reevaluation of the 2010/11-2013/14 production series by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok. The 2012/13 area estimate for Burma was raised 690,000 hectares to 7.04 million hectares. Second, India’s 2013/14 production estimate was raised 840,000 tons to a near-record 105.2 million tons based on Government data indicating a higher yield. In contrast, Malaysia’s 2012/13 crop estimate was slightly lowered due to a weaker yield.
Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 474.1 million tons, up 0.8 million from the previous forecast and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 111.7 million tons, up 6.6 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.7 million tons above a year earlier.
Global Rice Trade in 2014 Is Projected at a Record 41.0 Million Tons
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.0 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from the previous forecast and 2.3 million tons above 2013.
There was only one major upward revision in exports this month. Burma’s 2014 export forecast was raised 550,000 tons to 1.3 million tons based on much larger supplies and upward revisions in export levels for previous years. In contrast, Australia’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 20,000 tons to 500,000 based on smaller supplies.
There were only minor country-specific import revisions this month. The largest was a 50,000-ton decrease in Peru’s imports to 220,000 tons based on a larger crop and weaker 2013 imports.
Global trade for 2013 is estimated at 38.7 million tons, up 0.35 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 3 percent below a year earlier.
There were three 2013 import revisions this month. First, Iran’s 2013 imports were raised 250,000 tons to 2.15 million tons based on year-end trade data. Iran’s imports in 2013 were up 0.6 million tons from a year earlier and the largest on record. In contrast, Iraq’s 2013 import estimate was lowered 100,000 tons to 1.3 million tons, also based on year-end trade data. Finally, Peru’s 2013 imports were lowered 24,000 tons to 176,000 tons based on year-end trade data.
California’s Medium-Grain Milled-Rice Prices Continue To Increase
Prices for California milled rice for the U.S. market and global market continue to rise, mostly over concerns of substantially reduced acreage this year resulting from a record drought in the State.
California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers is quoted at $915 per ton for the week ending March 4, up $143 from February 4 and the highest since August 2009. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice were quoted at $1,125 per ton for the week ending March 4, unchanged from mid-February but up $175 from late January. These are the most rapid price increases for U.S. rice since the 2008 price spike.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have increased slightly since early February. For the week ending March 4, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $584 per ton, up $5 from both a week and a month earlier. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect a free-on-board vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $172 per ton, down from a record $191 in early January but well above the long-term average of around $50 per ton. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $380 per ton for the week ending February 4, unchanged since late September.
Prices for higher grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice are nearly unchanged from a month earlier, after rising a few dollars a ton in late February and early March due to a stronger baht.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $421 per ton for the week ending March 10, down $1 from the week ending February 10. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $406 per ton for the week ending March 10, up $1 from the week ending February 10. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $440 per ton for the week ending March 10, down $4 from the week ending February 10.
Price quotes from Vietnam have increased slightly over the past month. For the week ending March 5, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $400 per ton, up $5 from February 5. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently just $6 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, down from $10 last month.∆
|
|