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2013/14 Production Forecasts Raised for Bangladesh and Japan
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 471.5 million tons (milled basis), up 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast and 2.0 million cwt larger than a year earlier.
The bumper global crop is the result of expanded area in 2013/14. At a record 160.1 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up 2.6 million hectares from a year earlier.
There were three significant revisions to 2013/14 crop forecasts this month. First, Bangladesh’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised almost 0.2 million tons to a record 34.6 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Dhaka reporting a larger Boro crop – harvested last May and June – that resulted from favorable weather that increased yields.
Second, Japan’s 2013/14 rice crop estimate was raised 112,000 tons to 7.83 million tons based on year-end Government data indicating a stronger yield. And third, the U.S. 2013/14 crop estimate was raised 64,000 tons to 6.1 million tons solely due to a higher milling rate. The crop is 4 percent smaller than a year earlier, a result of decreased plantings. The U.S. average yield is the highest on record. There were three additional minor production revisions this month. First, Ukraine’s 2013/14 production was lowered 6,000 tons to 94,000 tons based on a lower yield. Second, Mexico’s 2013/14 production estimate was raised 6,000 tons to 135,000 tons. And third, Russia’s 2013/14 production estimate was raised 2,000 tons to 602,000 tons based on slightly higher area.
Global rice production in 2012/13 remains estimated at 469.5 million tons, up 1 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record.
Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 473.3 million tons, up 0.3 million from the previous forecast and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Japan’s 2013/14 rice use forecast was raised slightly this month. On an annual basis, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Vietnam account for most of the projected increase in global consumption in 2013/14.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 105.0 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast and 1.8 million tons below a year earlier.
Vietnam’s 2013 Export Estimate Lowered; U.S. Export Estimate Raised
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 40.4 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast and 2.1 million tons above 2013. Global trade in 2014 is mainly driven by strong purchases by China and West Africa. On the supplier’s side, India is projected to again be the largest exporter, with Thailand and Vietnam expected to increase exports.
There were several small export revisions this month. First, in South America, Argentina’s 2014 export forecast was raised 70,000 tons to 620,000 tons based on a weaker currency that makes its exports more price competitive. Also, Venezuela’s 2014 exports were raised 25,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Caracas. These are the second highest exports for Venezuela. In the Middle East, Turkey’s 2014 export forecast was increased 50,000 tons to 600,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Ankara. Finally, Russia’s 2014 export forecast was raised 40,000 tons to 140,000 tons based on stronger reported shipments in 2012 and 2013.
There were several 2014 import upward revisions this month. In South America, Colombia’s 2014 import forecast was raised 50,000 tons to a near-record 325,000 tons based on stronger demand. In Asia, South Korea’s 2014 import forecast was raised 35,000 tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Seoul indicating the expected timing of its WTO imports. The U.S. 2013 import forecast was increased 25,000 tons to 675,000 tons based on year-end trade data. Finally, Russia’s 2014 import forecast was raised 30,000 tons to 250,000 tons based on Customs Union data reporting stronger imports in 2012 and 2013. These upward revisions were partially offset by a 130,000-ton reduction in Bangladesh’s 2014 import forecast to 300,000 tons based on a larger crop.
Global trade for 2013 remains estimated at 38.3 million, 2 percent below a year earlier.
There were several 2013 import revisions this month, mostly based on year-end trade data. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria’s imports were lowered 200,000 tons to 2.6 million tons based on trade data through November. Bangladesh’s 2013 imports were lowered 87,000 tons to 213,000 tons and South Korea’s 2013 imports were reduced 47,000 tons to 553,000 tons. These reductions were offset by several upward revisions. First, Madagascar’s 2013 imports were raised 100,000 tons to 350,000 tons based on tight domestic supplies and Russia’s 2013 imports were increased 45,000 tons to 245,000 tons based on Customs Union data.
California’s Export Prices Sharply Increase
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s high-quality, regular-milled white rice have increased 1-2 percent over the past month, while prices for medium- and lowerquality rice are unchanged.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $422 per ton for the week ending February 10, up $8 from the week ending January 6.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens are unchanged. For the week ending February 6, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens remain quoted at $310 per ton.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased, mostly due declining prices from other sources and expectations of the start of its main winter-spring crop harvest late this month. For the week ending February 4, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent doublewater-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $395 per ton, down $15 from January 7.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have decreased slightly since late January, mostly as a response to much lower global prices. For the week ending February 4, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $579 per ton, down $11 from both a week and a month earlier. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect a free-on-board vessel location) over Thailand’s 100 percent Grade B is $172 per ton, down from a record $191 a month earlier. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $380 per ton for the week ending February 4, unchanged since late September.∆
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