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U.S. Rice Crop Down 5 Percent From Year Ago
There were no supply side revisions to the 2013/14 supply and use tables. The 2013/14 carryin remains estimated at 36.4 million cwt, 11 percent smaller than a year earlier. The 2013/14 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 21.9 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 12.2 million cwt, 17 percent below a year earlier. Stocks of brokens are not specified by class.
The 2013/14 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 189.9 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier.
The production decline is the result of an 8-percent decline in all rice plantings to 2.49 million acres, the smallest since 1987/88.
U.S. rice imports remain forecast at 21.0 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier and the third highest on record. Through December, shipments from Southeast Asia – the largest source of U.S. rice – behind a year earlier. Long-grain imports remain forecast at 18.5 million cwt, 1 percent below a year earlier but still the second largest on record. Thailand is the largest supplier of long-grain imported rice to the U.S., shipping its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic, almost exclusively. India and Pakistan are typically the next largest suppliers, with their premium basmati rice accounting for nearly all of their sales to the United States. In years when U.S. supplies of brokens are tight, Vietnam has shipped more than 1 million cwt of rice to the U.S., mostly broken kernels.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain forecast at 2.5 million cwt, fractionally higher than a year earlier. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Arborio rice from Italy accounts for most of the remainder.
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2013/14 remain projected at 247.3 million cwt, 5.5 percent smaller than a year earlier and the smallest U.S. rice supplies since 2003/04. Long-grain total supplies remain forecast at 172.3 million cwt, 8 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain total supplies remain forecast at 72.7 million cwt, fractionally above a year earlier.
U.S. 2013/14 All Rice Export Forecast Raised to 100.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2013/14 is projected at 220.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 2 percent below a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for all of this month’s revisions on the use side.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2013/14 remains projected at 120.0 million cwt, with 1.0 million cwt switched between classes.
Total exports in 2013/14 are projected at 100.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from January but 7 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. rice exports since 2008/09.
Long-grain exports remain projected at 67.0 million cwt, 12 percent below a year earlier. Through January, combined shipments and outstanding sales to Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa have trailed last year’s pace. The Western Hemisphere accounts for the bulk of U.S. long-grain rice exports, with much of this rice shipped as unmilled rough-rice.
Northeast Asia is the largest market for U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounting for almost all U.S. sales to this region, with all purchases by these three countries the result of annual WTO commitments.
By type, rough-rice exports are projected at 36.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 5.0 percent above a year earlier.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) remain projected at 64.0 million cwt, 12 percent below a year earlier. Northeast Asia, Canada, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Caribbean are the top markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for the bulk of the decline in U.S. milled-rice exports in 2013/14, primarily due to stronger competition from lower priced Asian suppliers.
Through January 30, data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report indicated that combined U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales were almost 8 percent behind a year earlier. By class and type, combined outstanding sales and exports of long-grain rough-rice were 9 percent behind a year earlier for the week ending January 30, down from 11.5 percent behind a month earlier. Combined medium and short-grain rough-rice outstanding sales and exports were 142 percent ahead of a year earlier through January 30, 2014, up from 94 percent ahead a month earlier.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2013/14 are projected at 27.3 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the January forecast and 25 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2003/04.
By class, the 2013/14 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 16.3 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 26 percent smaller than a year earlier.
The medium- and short-grain carryout remains projected at 8.7 million cwt, down 1.7 million cwt from the January forecast and 29 percent below a year earlier.
This month, the 2013/14 milling yield was raised 0.75 of a percentage point to 71.00 percent based on Farm Service Agency (FSA) warehouse stored loan data for long, medium, and short grain rice.
U.S. 2013/14 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised for Medium and Short-Grain Rough-Rice
The 2013/14 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice was revised to $15.10-$15.70 per cwt from $14.80-$15.80 a month earlier, with the midpoint up 10 cents. This compares with a 2012/13 revised SAFP of $14.50 per cwt.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2013/14 U.S. SAFP range was revised to $17.20-$17.80 per cwt from $16.30-$17.30 per cwt, an increase in the mid-point of 70 cents.
In late January, NASS reported a mid-January U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.30 per cwt, down 20 cents from the December estimate. The December long-grain price is the highest since January 2009. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-January NASS price was reported at $16.90 per cwt, up $1.20 from the revised December price. The December price was lowered 80 cents from the midmonth estimate to $15.70 per cwt. In January, NASS made revisions for monthly cash prices and marketings for 2012/13 and 2013/14. ∆
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