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Production Forecasts Raised For U.S., Brazil, Pakistan
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 471.1 million tons (milled basis), up 0.5 million tons from last month’s forecast and up 1.6 million cwt from a year earlier. On a year-to-year basis, both East Asia and Southeast Asia are projected to produce record rice crops.
The bumper global crop is the result of expanded area in 2013/14. At a record 160.1 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up 2.7 million hectares from a year earlier. Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan account for most of the year-to-year area increase. The yield decline is partly due to adverse weather in China and India, the world’s two largest rice producing countries.
There were three significant upward revisions to 2013/14 crop forecasts this month. First, Pakistan’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 0.4 million tons to 6.4 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Islamabad indicating better than expected monsoon rains and higher yields from the hybrid varieties. Second, the U.S. 2013/14 crop estimate was raised 154,000 tons to 6.05 million tons due to slightly higher area and yield estimates reported by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. And third, Brazil’s 2013/14 rice crop was raised 100,000 tons to 8.3 million tons based on data from the Government’s statistical agency reporting slightly larger area and an even higher record yield.
Global rice production in 2012/13 is estimated at 469.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month’s estimate and 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Pakistan accounted for the bulk of this month’s upward revision in 2012/13 production. Argentina’s 2012/13 crop estimate was raised 104,000 tons to 1.014 million based on a higher area estimate reported by the Ministry of Agriculture. Finally, Ecuador’s 2012/13 production estimate was raised 25,000 tons to 800,000 tons based on data and information from FAO.
Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 473.1 million tons, up 0.2 million from the previous forecast and more than 1 percent larger than a year earlier. On an annual basis, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam account for most of the projected increase in global consumption in 2013/14.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 105.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast but down 1.9 million tons from a year earlier. This is the first decline since 2006/07 in global ending stocks. Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand account for most of this month’s upward revision in global ending stocks.
Pakistan’s 2013 and 2014 Export Forecasts Are Raised
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 40.2 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast and 1.9 million tons above 2013.
Global trade in 2014 is projected to be driven mainly by strong purchases by China and West Africa. India is projected to again be the largest exporter, with Thailand and Vietnam expected to increase exports.
Only one 2014 export forecast was revised this month: Pakistan’s 2014 export forecast was raised 0.4 million tons to 3.4 million tons based a larger crop and recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Islamabad. The only country-specific import revision for 2014 was a 0.2-million ton increase in the Philippines’ import forecast to 1.4 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Manila indicating the Government wants to increase its buffer stocks.
The 2013 total global rice trade forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 38.3 million, 2 percent below a year earlier. The only upward revision on the 2013 export side was a 0.3-million ton increase in Pakistan’s exports to 3.3 million, based on a much larger crop, shipment pace, and recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Islamabad. This increase was offset by three downward revisions. First, Thailand’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 0.3 million tons to 6.7 million tons based on pace to date and recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok. Second, the U.S. 2013 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.2 million tons based on pace to date. Finally, Kazakhstan’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 10,000 tons to 40,000 tons, also based on shipment pace.
There were four significant 2013 import revisions this month. First, Indonesia’s 2013 import forecast was lowered 350,000 tons to 650,000 tons based on pace to date and recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Jakarta. In nearby Malaysia, 2013 imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 900,000 based on shipment data. In the Western Hemisphere, Cuba’s 2013 were lowered 125,000 tons to 400,000 tons based on pace to date. Finally, Oman’s 2013 import forecast was raised 75,000 tons to 250,000 tons, also based on trade data.
Thailand’s Export Prices Continue To Drop
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s high-quality, regular-milled white rice have declined around 4 percent over the past month, with prices for medium- and lower quality rice dropping around 10 percent.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $414 per ton for the week ending January 6, down $16 from the week ending December 9.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens have declined at a faster pace. For the week ending January 6, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $310 per ton, down $75 per ton from the week ending December 9. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,018 per ton for the week ending January 6, down $72 from the week ending December 9.
Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased as well, mostly due to declining prices from other sources and expectations of the start of its main winter-spring crop harvest late next month.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have decreased slightly since mid-December, mostly as a response to declining global prices. For the week ending January 7, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $590 per ton, down $5 from the week ending December 10. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $380 per ton for the week ending December 10, unchanged since late September.∆
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