Nov/Dec 2025 Soybean-To-Corn Price Ratio Was 2.29 At End Of The Week

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

2025 will be a challenging year for many Tennessee corn, soybean, cotton, and wheat farmers. Low commodity prices, disappointing 2024 yields, high input costs, and policy uncertainty will require farmers to make important agronomic, financial, and risk management decisions. Due to the complexity of modern farming, it is essential for farmers to surround themselves with a strong support network. Important roles in farmer support networks include: 

Lawyer – Having appropriate legal advice is essential for agricultural enterprises. This can include a local lawyer for general le- gal matters but may also include specialized legal advice for more complex legal concerns. Paying for specialization is often cheaper in the long run. 

Accountant – Nobody likes paying taxes, but it is essential for farmers to obtain assistance when preparing tax returns, planning purchases, or transitioning the farm to the next generation. A good accountant can save you money and assist if you have issues with the IRS. 

Crop Insurance Agent – Crop insurance is the primary risk management tool for most crop producers. Crop insurance can be complicated to navigate and requires individual, policy specific, analysis to ensure that the farmer is receiving the most effective coverage for the premium paid. 

Agricultural Lender – Agriculture is a capital-intensive business. Adequate and consistent access to operating and term debt is essential for most farmers. Having a primary agricultural lender that understands your operation and that will stick with you through agricultural cycles is imperative. This is not to say that all credit will be obtained through one lender. Farmers need to make sure that the cost of credit is fully analyzed, and decisions make financial sense. 

Broker / Marketer / Grain Merchandiser – Marketing is not a strength for most farmers. However, in times of low prices and tight margins marketing can be the difference between profit and loss. Obtaining expertise or a second opinion can be a tremendous benefit. 

Crop Consultant / Agronomist – Every production year is different and will require problem solving so a crop can be produced and sold. Yield is important, however in periods of low prices and elevated input costs it is essential that each input is pulling its own weight economically. The cost of the input must be fully covered by financial benefits. A good agronomist can help navigate the agronomic challenges of the production season. 

Extension Agent / Specialist – Extension provides a network to problem solve and connect producers with expertise to address problems and verify information independent of a financial motive. Searching the internet can be a powerful tool to assist in decision making. However, unfortunately the internet has carpet bombed the information landscape with absolute bullshit, so be wary of information sources. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 32 under to 26 over, with an average of 2 over the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending December was 1.078 million barrels per day, up 5,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.648 million barrels, down 0.355 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for November 29-December 5 were net sales of 37.3 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 13% compared to last week at 46.6 million bushels – a marketing year high. Corn export sales and commitments were 56% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 53%. Cash prices ranged from $4.11 to $4.98 at elevators and barge points. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.42, up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 corn futures traded between $4.37 and $4.51. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.49, up 4 cents since last Friday. 

Mar/May and Mar/Dec future spreads were 7 and -3 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.39, up 2 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.40 December 2025 Put Option costing 34 cents establishing a $4.06 futures floor. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North-Central elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 22 un-der to 35 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 18 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 43.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 23% compared to last week at 68.3 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 75% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 75%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.68 to $10.31. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.88, down 5 cents since last Friday. For the week, January 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.85 and $10.03. March soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.25 at the end of the week. March 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.95, down 4 cents since last Friday. 

Jan/Mar and Jan/Nov future spreads were 7 and 18 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.06, up 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.20 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 70 cents and set a $9.50 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.29 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for December 12 were 66.59 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.59 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 1.52 cents to 56.22 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 153,000 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 3,300 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 13% compared to last week at 137,400 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 66% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 73%. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.27 cents, down 0.84 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 cotton futures traded between 69.05 and 70.75 cents. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 70.41 cents, down 0.94 cents since last Friday. 

Mar/May and Mar/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.14 cents and 1.22 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 70.49 cents, down 0.8 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 71 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 4.06 cents establishing a 66.94 cent futures floor. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 10.7 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 38% compared to last week at 7.3 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 69% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 76%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.13 to $5.47. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.55, down 5 cents since last Friday. The March wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.25. March 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.51 and $5.69 this week. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.62, down 3 cents since last Friday. 

Mar/May and Mar/Jul future spreads were 10 and 16 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.23 to $5.58. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.68, down 3 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2025 Put Option costing 45 cents establishing a $5.25 futures floor.  ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee