Rice Market Outlook For 2025 Unclear

US RICE PRODUCERS

KATY, TEXAS

The market continues to find footing as we head into the Christmas season. Last week offered record export sales numbers, which was welcomed news to all segments of the industry. Prices and cash activity continue to be moving sideways, as the psychology of the market seems to be on auto-pilot until the new year.

 A recentGrain: World Markets and Tradereport from the USDA does show that global rice production is forecast down on decreases for the Philippines (typhoons) and Nepal. These losses more than offset the outsized Brazil crop, and growing exports from Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand continue to challenge the newly exportable Indian supplies. Global consumption and stocks are forecast slightly lower.

 Since the November WASDE, and frankly since India entered the market in October, the chart shows a steady decline in prices for Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The U.S. and Uruguay have remained insulated, but cheap rice from Pakistan is beginning to puncture the barrier into the Western Hemisphere. 

We have featured in this newsletter how critical it is that the United States can retain its market share in Haiti. So far this year, over 10% of the total U.S. rice exports were shipped to Haiti, the largest destination for U.S. long grain milled rice. As recently as 2019, the U.S. supplied 95% of Haiti’s total rice imports. However, since 2023, competition from Pakistan has increased, reducing US market share to 71% YTD (Jan.-Sept. 2024). This is a disturbing trend, as Haiti’s economic situation doesn’t look to be improving, and to compete with Pakistan would mean continued below break-even levels to the U.S. rice producer. It’s a good thing that paddy shipments to Mexico remain resilient in the face of so much global uncertainty.  ∆

US RICE PRODUCERS