November WASDE Report Capped Off A Good Week For Corn And Soybean Futures Prices

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

The November WASDE report capped off a good week for corn and soybean futures prices. December corn had daily price gains of +2, +2, +7 3⁄4, +1 1⁄2, and +3 1⁄2 cents and January soybeans had daily price gains of +3 1⁄2, +4 1⁄2, +2, +22 1⁄4, and +4 cents. Export sales and revisions to yield and projected ending stocks provided fuel for the price rally. 

The November WASDE report revised national average yield 0.7 bu/acre lower at 183.1 bu/acre. This would still be record, however it decreased estimated production by 60 million bushels with a corresponding decrease in US ending stocks. Chinese corn imports were revised down 118 million bushels and foreign domestic corn use was increased 243 million bushels. Overall, the report was bullish for corn. 

The estimated national average soybean yield decreased 1.4 bu/acre to 51.7 bu/acre. With harvested acreage unchanged US production decreased 121 million bushels. US crushing and soybean exports decreased 15 and 25 million bushels resulting in a net decrease in projected US ending stocks of 80 million bushels. Minor revisions to foreign supply and demand estimates resulted in a 27-million-bushel decline in projected foreign ending stocks. No changes were made to estimated South American soybean. Overall, the report was bullish for soybean prices. 

USDA decreased cotton exports by a further 200,000 bales to 13.1 million, increasing projected US ending stocks to 4.3 million bales. Foreign cotton stocks declined 780,000 bales leaving world stocks 580,000 bales. Overall, the report was bearish for cotton prices. The lack of global demand for cotton continues to be the story of this marketing year. 

The WASDE report increased US wheat imports by 5 million bushels and food use by 2 million bushels resulting in a 3 million bushel increase in ending stocks. Estimated foreign stocks decreased by 9 million bushels. Overall, the report was neutral for wheat prices. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 under to 35 over, with an average of 9 over the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending November 1 was 1.105 million barrels per day, up 23,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.02 million barrels, up 0.249 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for October 25-31 were net sales of 108.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 16% compared to last week at 36.1 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 48% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 42%. The Crop Progress report estimated corn harvested at 91% compared to 81% last week, 78% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%. In Tennessee, corn harvested was estimated at 98% compared to 96% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%. Cash prices ranged from $3.91 to $4.68 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $4.31, up 17 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 corn futures traded between $4.13 and $4.34. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec future spreads were 13 and 18 cents. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.44, up 15 cents since last Friday. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.49, up 8 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.50 December 2025 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $4.13 futures floor. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 37 under to 25 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of even. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 84.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 1% compared to last week at 89.1 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 56% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 61%. The Crop Progress report estimated soybeans harvested at 94% compared to 89% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 85%. In Tennessee, soy- beans harvested were estimated at 85% compared to 77% last week, 78% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.60 to $10.62. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.30, up 37 cents since last Friday. For the week, January 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.82 and $10.44. Jan/Dec soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.39 at the end of the 

Jan/Mar and Jan/Nov future spreads were 13 and 22 cents. March 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.43, up 35 cents since last Friday. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.52, up 20 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.60 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 76 cents and set a $9.84 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.32 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for November 7 were 66.8 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.8 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.58 cents to 57.96 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 229,000 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 9% compared to last week at 145,800 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 55% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 66%. The Crop Progress report estimated cotton harvested at 63% compared to 52% last week, 55% last year, and a 5-year average of 54%. In Tennessee, cotton harvested was estimated at 78% compared to 66% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 62%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 70.98 cents, up 0.81 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 cotton futures traded between 68.95 and 71.36 cents. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec cotton futures spreads were 2.25 cents and 2.27 cents. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 73.25 cents, up 0.92 cents since last Friday. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 73.23 cents, up 0.7 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 74 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 4.87 cents establishing a 69.13 cent futures floor. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 13.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 3% compared to last week at 8.7 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 62% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 66%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.23 to $5.39. December 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.72, up 4 cents since last Friday. The December wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.33. December 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.62 and $5.79 this week. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.87, unchanged since last Friday. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 15 and 33 cents. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 41% good-to-excellent and 23% poor-to-very poor, winter wheat planted at 87% compared to 80% last week, 88% last year, and a 5 -year average of 89%; and winter wheat emerged at 66% compared to 56% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%. In Tennessee winter wheat condition was estimated at 63% good-to-excellent and 13% poor-to-very poor, winter wheat planted estimated at 69% compared to 60% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 64%; and winter wheat emerged at 41% compared to 30% last week, 34% last year, and a 5-year average of 42%. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.67 to $5.87. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.05, unchanged since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.10 July 2025 Put Option costing 55 cents establishing a $5.55 futures floor.  ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee