Harvest Crop Insurance Prices Were Set This Week

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

After a slow start to the marketing year corn export sales have picked up pace. In the first four weeks of the 2024/25 marketing year, corn export sales averaged 36.7 million bushels per week. In the last four weeks, export sales have averaged 92.4 million bushels per week. However, prices have not been overly responsive to the increase in export sales. The December contract is up only 13 1⁄2 cents since the start of September. 

The November soybean contract will come off the board in a couple of weeks. Since the start of the calendar year the November soybean contract had an average daily closing price of $11.11 and a range of $9.57 to $12.28. The high occurred on May 7th  and the low on August 7 . In general, securing a futures price earlier in the year resulted in higher prices. 

Cotton exports are projected to fall for the 5th consecutive marketing year, from 16.35 million bales in 2020/21 to 11.5 million bales projected for the current marketing year. The current pace of export sales may necessitate reductions in this year’s USDA export projections. Total export commitments as a percentage of total exports for this week in the marketing year are 53%, the lowest level in the past five years and 11% lower than the five-year average. 

Harvest crop insurance prices were set this week. The harvest price is determined by the average daily closing price of the December (corn and cotton) or November (soybean) futures contract from October 1-31. The harvest crop insurance prices were $0.72 (spring price $0.83) for cotton, $4.16 (spring price $4.66) for corn, and $10.03 (spring price $11.55) for soybeans. Producers with above state average yields are unlikely to receive crop insurance indemnity payments. Currently, USDA estimates Tennessee average yields for corn, cotton, and soybeans at 153 bu/acre, 47 bu/acre, and 1,094 lbs/acre. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 40 under to 25 over, with an average of even the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 25 was 1.082 million barrels per day, up 1,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 21.771 million barrels, down 0.452 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for October 18-24 were net sales of 92.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 21% compared to last week at 31.0 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 44% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 40%. The Crop Progress report estimated corn harvested at 81% compared to 65% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 64%. In Tennessee, corn harvested was estimated at 96% compared to 94% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%. Cash prices ranged from $3.70 to $4.39 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $4.14, down 1 cent since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 corn futures traded between $4.09 and $4.15. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.20 December 2024 Put Option costing 9 cents establishing a $4.11 futures floor. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec future spreads were 15 and 27 cents. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.29, unchanged since last Friday. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.41, up 1 cent since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 34 under to 31 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 1 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 83.5 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down less than 1% compared to last week at 89.8 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 52% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 58%. The Crop Progress report estimated soybeans harvested at 89% compared to 81% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 78%. In Tennessee, soybeans harvested were estimated at 77% compared to 69% last week, 69% last year, and a 5-year average of 62%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.39 to $10.06. November 2024 soybean futures closed at $9.82, down 5 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2024 soybean futures traded between $9.63 and $9.97. Nov/ Dec 2024 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.37 at the end of the week. 

Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov future spreads were 11 and 55 cents. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.93, down 4 cents since last Friday. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.32, unchanged since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 70 cents and set a $9.70 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.34 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 31 were 65.07 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 67.07 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjust- ed World Price (AWP) decreased 0.74 cents to 58.54 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 189,400 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 36% compared to last week at 134,300 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 53% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 64%. The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 33% good-to-excellent and 36% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 97% compared to 94% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%; and cotton harvested at 52% compared to 44% last week, 47% last year, and a 5-year average of 46%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 37% good-to-excellent and 35% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 99% compared to 97% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; and cotton harvested at 66% compared to 53% last week, 57% last year, and a 5-year average of 51%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 70.17 cents, down 0.49 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 cotton futures traded between 69.26 and 71.11 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 71 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 0.70 cents establishing a 70.3 cent futures floor. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 2.16 cents and 3.66 cents. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 72.33 cents, down 0.52 cents since last Friday. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 73.83 cents, down 0.56 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 15.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 12% compared to last week at 9.0 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 61% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 64%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.93 to $5.21. December 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.68, down 1 cent since last Friday. The December wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.37. December 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.57 and $5.80 this week. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.87, down 2 cents since last Friday. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 19 and 37 cents. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 38% good-to-excellent and 23% poor-to-very poor, winter wheat planted at 80% compared to 73% last week, 82% last year, and a 5 -year average of 84%; and winter wheat emerged at 56% compared to 46% last week, 61% last year, and a 5-year average of 61%. In Tennessee winter wheat condition was estimated at 66% good-to-excellent and 12% poor-to-very poor, winter wheat planted estimated at 60% compared to 42% last week, 45% last year, and a 5-year average of 52%; and winter wheat emerged at 30% compared to 20% last week, 22% last year, and a 5-year average of 29%. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.60 to $5.90. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.05, unchanged since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.10 July 2025 Put Option costing 56 cents establishing a $5.54 futures floor.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee