Is Missouri's Farmland Market Cooling Down?
JUO-HAN TSAY
COLUMBIA, MISSOURI
After years of record-breaking farmland prices in Missouri, is stabilization on the horizon? Data from the latest Missouri Farmland Values Opinion Survey hints at slower growth in Show-Me State farmland values.
The annual survey provides valuable insights into farmland values, who is buying and selling, and the factors affecting farmland values now and in the near future, said Juo-Han Tsay, University of Missouri Extension assistant professor and survey organizer.
Key trends in Missouri farmland values
From July to September 2024, the Missouri Farmland Values Opinion Survey collected more than 260 responses from lenders, farmers, rural appraisers and others familiar with Missouri land values. Survey respondents gave estimates of land values for three classes of cropland and pastureland (good, average, poor), irrigated cropland, timberland and hunting/recreational land.
While statewide averages still show an increase in farmland values, a deeper look reveals important regional trends that could affect decisions on buying, selling or leasing Missouri farmland, Tsay said.
“Our survey responses suggest that we are seeing some growth at the state level, but that growth isn’t as sharp as in previous years,” she said. “For instance, we’re seeing notable increases in pastureland values, while ‘good’ nonirrigated cropland prices have slightly decreased.”
Across Missouri, average “good” non-irrigated cropland is valued at $8,524 per acre, while “good” pastureland is valued at $5,687 per acre. Timberland is valued at $4,520 per acre, and hunting/recreation land is valued at $4,710 per acre. Responses indicate that farmland values are highest in urban areas of Missouri and lowest in southwestern and south-central Missouri. Tsay added that land values in urban areas applied upward pressure to state averages for land sales.
Who buys and sells Missouri farmland?
Understanding the buyers and sellers of Missouri farmland can be advantageous when entering the land market. “When asked about the sellers of Missouri farmland, our respondents suggested most were retired farmers and estate sales,” Tsay said. “It’s believed that the sales were made to capitalize on good market prices or were part of a family’s succession plan.”
For landowners considering selling, strong demand and limited availability could offer favorable conditions.
What lies ahead for Missouri farmland?
Looking to 2025, survey respondents predict a 2.7% increase for cropland values, a 2.9% rise for pastureland values and a 2.3% increase for other types of farmland. These projections vary by region, with the highest expected growth in northwestern Missouri and non-crop and non-pastureland values climbing fastest in western and south-central Missouri.
According to Tsay, survey respondents cited interest rates, weather and commodity prices as significantly affecting farmland prices in 2024. These respondents found that farmers who purchased land held strong cash positions, so the impact of higher interest rates might not have been felt as deeply. Understanding Missouri’s farmland market and the drivers affecting land values can help farmers, ranchers, landowners and others stay poised to make informed decisions for their business goals.
“Changes in farmland values impact not only the buyers and sellers of land but also renters, lenders and others with an interest in the farmland market,” said Tsay. “Understanding the current trends and forecast changes in Missouri farmland values can be beneficial when considering land investments, negotiating rental agreements and analyzing your operation’s financial position.”
For more results from the 2024 Missouri Farmland Value Opinion Survey, including regional data and historical comparisons, visit http://muext.us/LandValues. ∆
JUO-HAN TSAY: University of Missouri