US Exports Were Increased 25 Million Bushels Compared To Last Month

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Exports continue to lag the pace required to meet USDA export targets for corn, cotton, soybean, and wheat. Annually, the US exports 12-20% of corn production, 40-55% of soybean production, 40-55% of wheat production, and 80-90% of cotton production. Failing to achieve export targets will likely result in USDA increasing projected ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year, which would be negative for prices. 

On Friday October 11, USDA released the October World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. 

For corn, US average yield was increased 0.2 bu/acre resulting in an increase in production, compared to last month, of 17 million bushels. Beginning stocks were decreased 52 million bushels based on greater disappearance in the previous marketing year based on the Grain Stocks report. US exports were increased 25 million bushels compared to last month, likely due to the lower price environment attracting additional foreign purchases. Internationally limited revisions were made. Overall, projected world ending stocks were estimated 72 million bushels lower. The report was mostly neutral for corn prices. 

For soybeans, US yield was decreased 0.1 bu/acre resulting in decreased production of 4 million bushels. Foreign estimates were left mostly unchanged. Soybean markets will focus on Brazil’s growing season, which got off to a dry start but has received precipitation recently resulting in declines to soybean futures. USDA currently projects Brazil soybean production at 6.2 billion bushels. 

For cotton, US yield was decreased 18 lbs/acre, decreasing production by 310,000 bales. Damage due to hurricane Helene or Milton were not included in USDA estimates. Hurricane damage is likely to further reduce production and adversely affect quality. Cotton markets seem content trading between 70 and 75 cents until more information is known. 

Additional details of the WASDE report and market reaction can be found at: https://arec.tennessee.edu/extension/tennessee- market-highlights/monthly-crop-comments/.

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 40 under to 5 under, with an average of 24 under the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 4 was 1.038 million barrels per day, up 23,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.154 million barrels, down 1.305 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for September 27-October 3 were net sales of 48.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 9% compared to last week at 41.7 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 30% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 35%. The Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 64% good-to-excellent and 13% poor-to-very poor; corn mature at 87% compared to 75% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%; and corn harvested at 30% compared to 21% last week, 31% last year, and a 5-year average of 27%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 43% good-to-excellent and 25% poor-to-very poor; corn mature at 98% compared to 96% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; and corn harvested at 80% compared to 70% last week, 67% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%. Cash prices ranged from $3.75 to $4.26 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $4.15, down 9 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 corn futures traded between $4.15 and $4.28. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.20 December 2024 Put Option costing 11 cents establishing a $4.09 futures floor. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec future spreads were 18 and 35 cents. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.33, down 8 cents since last Friday. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.50, down 3 cent since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 65 under to 8 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 28 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 46.5 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales cancellations of 0.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 135% compared to last week at 62.7 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 40% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 50%. The Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 63% good- to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor; soybeans dropping leaves at 90% compared to 81% last week, 91% last year, and a 5- year average of 85%; and soybeans harvested at 47% compared to 26% last week, 37% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 40% good-to-excellent and 23% poor-to-very poor; soybeans dropping leaves at 83% compared to 78% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%; and soybeans harvested at 51% com- pared to 42% last week, 35% last year, and a 5-year average of 29%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.44 to $10.32. November 2024 soybean futures closed at $10.05, down 32 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2024 soybean futures traded between $10.04 and $10.39. Nov/Dec 2024 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.42 at the end of the week. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.10 November 2024 Put Option which would cost 15 cents and set a $9.95 futures floor. 

Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov future spreads were 16 and 50 cents. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.21, down 35 cents since last Friday. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.55, down 25 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to- corn price ratio was 2.34 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 11 were 66.71 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.71 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjust- ed World Price (AWP) decreased 0.40 cents to 60.41 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 89,600 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 13,200 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 11% compared to last week at 95,100 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 46% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 59%. The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 29% good-to-excellent and 35% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 82% compared to 72% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; and cotton harvested at 26% compared to 20% last week, 23% last year, and a 5-year average of 22%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 34% good-to-excellent and 30% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 91% compared to 85% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; and cotton harvested at 19% compared to 10% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 72.21 cents, down 1.06 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 cotton futures traded between 71.11 and 74.14 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 73 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 2.21 cents establishing a 70.79 cent futures floor. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 2.12 cents and 3.5 cents. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 74.33 cents, down 0.95 cents since last Friday. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 75.71 cents, down 0.81 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 15.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.2 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 32% compared to last week at 13.2 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 54% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year 

(June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 58%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.27 to $5.49. December 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.99, up 10 cents since last Friday. The December wheat-to- corn price ratio was 1.44. December 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.84 and $6.11 this week. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.21, up 9 cents since last Friday. 

Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 22 and 40 cents. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted at 51% compared to 39% last week, 52% last year, and a 5-year average of 52%; and winter wheat emerged at 25% compared to 14% last week, 25% last year, and a 5-year average of 25%. In Tennessee winter wheat planted was estimated at 20% compared to 10% last week, 14% last year, and a 5-year average of 16%; and winter wheat emerged at 2% compared to 0% last week, 3% last year, and a 5-year average of 6%. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.99 to $6.22. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.39, up 7 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.40 July 2025 Put Option costing 56 cents establishing a $5.84 futures floor.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee