Hurricane Francine's Impact On Harvest To Be Determined
US RICE PRODUCERS
KATY, TEXAS
Harvest is rounding the corner to completion in all states but California, where they took a huge jump forward in harvest completion because the rice is drying quicker in the field than normal. In Mississippi and Arkansas, there are emerging reports of lost or delayed acres due to Hurricane Francine, but the total amount is yet to be determined. We don’t have any significant changes in milling yields to report this week, but the real story would be the surging harvest of medium grain rice in California.
Early field yields are reporting nearly 10% off from historical norms on the West Coast, which is puzzling many of the producers in the state. The below-average yield is attributed to excessive heat during the flowering stage for the early-maturing varieties. Despite these low field yields, milling yields are reported to be strong, but there is nothing firm to hold onto yet. Producers are hoping that the later maturing varieties will return to a more average yield, but virtually none of those fields have been cut as of this writing.
AUSDA GAIN report on Mexicowas published this week. Post forecasts that Mexico’s milled rice production will increase 5% up to 160,000 metric tons (81,544 acres) based on higher-than-average precipitation. Post forecasts imports to decrease by only 2% to 840,000 MT on account of the increased production. U.S. rice is estimated to remain the primary source of rough rice for Mexico because of its proximity, reliability, and price competitiveness. Milled rice, now accounting for nearly one-third of Mexico’s imports, is a bit more diversified with suppliers coming from the U.S. (47%), Thailand (24%), and Uruguay (22%). It is expected that Mexico’s consumption will increase by 1% this year, up to 990,000 MT. All things considered, it is positive news and great to finally have a full crop to send to Mexico.
In Asia, Thai prices continue to soften, now down to $550 pmt, while Viet prices have held closer to $580 pmt. The big news this week, however, is the awarding of the BULOG tender. It was Indonesia’s 8th tender, and it went to Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, and the majority to Pakistan. The demand side of the equation has been choppy, so this surge in demand didn’t have a material impact on price direction in those markets. Paki price is reported at $535 pmt, similar to last week, and down 9% from three months ago.
On the ground, cash prices in Texas are $15.50-$16.50. Louisiana is reporting $14.80-$15.20. Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are showing bids of $14.50 and ask of $15.55.
Theweekly USDA Export Sales reportshows net sales of 55,300 MT this week, down 32% from the previous week, but up 6% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 59,400 MT were down 33% from the previous week, but up 18% from the prior 4-week average. ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS