Harvest In Full Swing; Cautious Optimism For Delta Milling Yields
KATY, TEXAS
Harvest is in full swing now, and there is a welcomed absence of bad news. As of writing, we are happy to report no crazy weather events, no terrible harvest conditions, and continued optimism helping along a worry-free harvest. Louisiana leads the way with nearly 90% of its harvest complete, and 84% in Good/Excellent conditions. Texas is right behind them getting close to 90% harvested while reporting only 54% in the Good/Excellent conditions. Arkansas is over 25% harvested now, where 76% is reported as Good/Excellent. The next big step here will be to get initial milling yields back from the field, which we hope to begin trickling in within the next two weeks.
Mississippi is also about 25% complete, showing 58% in Good/Excellent conditions. Missouri is now rounding out 10% harvested, and reports show 71% Good/Excellent. California still has yet to get a harvester in the field, where crop conditions are reported at 100% in Good/Excellent conditions. Overall, 33% of the harvest is complete, which is 15% faster than last year, and 79% of the crop is in Good or Excellent condition.
Mills are happy to be working on the 40 TMT of business to Iraq that will likely be pulling from some old crops and some new crops. There is hope for additional purchases in the future once the crop is harvested and the market sentiment firms in one direction or another. The domestic buyers seem to be holding off on booking large quantities until the harvest is further along and new supplies are available. There is a dual purpose here, one for the hope of more competitive pricing with the larger crop, and the second for the simple fact of better quality on a new crop product.
In Asia, prices are holding relatively steady. Thailand is $593 pmt this week, while Vietnam is $579 pmt, both prices are right on par with last week. Consistent purchases from Indonesia and the Philippines are fueling core demand, while business into Africa and other Pacific Rim destinations fill in the gaps. India continues to move rice via G2G under the radar of their export ban, now at higher volumes and profiles than in previous months. We continue to state that these private deals will help mute the eventual impact of their opening of exports in the future, which we expect to happen this calendar year.
Theweekly USDA Export Sales Reportshows net sales of 24,300 MT this week, up 23% from last week. Exports of 21,100 MT are down 39%, and were primarily to Haiti (12,000 MT), Mexico (4,400 MT), Jordan (2,000 MT), Canada (1,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (1,100 MT).
In the futures market, average daily volume is down 4.14% to 1,653, and Open Interest is down 4.09% to 8,845. Sep 24 contracts bumped just over 2% to $15.130, while Sep 25 contracts are down -0.54% at $14.840. The large crop is putting buyers in a wait-and-see attitude until more is known about the milling yields. ∆
US RICE PRODUCERS