Soybean Prices Closed Up For The Week

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Are we there yet? The common refrain heard on many family vacations is applicable to corn futures prices finding a contract low this July and August. The September contract traded most of July between $3.90 and $4.10. In August, prices dropped to $3.67 to $3.90, with the trajectory sloping lower throughout the entire month. Since August 1, September corn futures have closed the day lower in 11 out of 17 trading days. The new contract low of $3.67 1⁄4 on August 23 indicates prices have still not set a firm floor for the 2024 crop. 

Soybean prices closed up for the week for the first time in the past month. November soybean futures achieved a new contract low on August 16 at $9.55 before gaining 16 cents this week. Prices were supported by drier South American weather forecasts that could delay soybean planting in Brazil. 

Cotton prices had a good week with the December contract adding over 300 points. After setting a new low of 66.26 cents on August 16, futures prices posted gains in 4 of 5 trading days closing the week above 70 cents. There is price resistance near 72 cents that could limit additional gains. For now, holding the 70-cent level will be essential before prices can move higher. 

Nearby wheat futures closed at $5.02 1⁄4 on Friday. July wheat futures pushed below $5.80 at the end of the week. Current new crop futures prices are at the lowest point at this time of year in four years. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 60 under to 11 under, with an average of 30 under the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending August 16 was 1.098 million barrels per day, up 26,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.574 million barrels, down 0.220 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 9-15 were net sales of 4.7 million bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year and 50.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 12% compared to last week at 45.5 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. September 2024 corn futures closed at $3.67, down 3 cents since last Friday. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 24 and 42 cents. For the week September 2024 corn futures traded between $3.67 and $3.78. 

The Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 97% compared to 94% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; corn dough or beyond at 74% compared to 60% last week, 74% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%; corn dented at 30% compared to 18% last week, 30% last year, and a 5-year average of 26%; and corn mature at 5% compared to 3% last year and a 5-year average of 3%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 51% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 98% compared to 97% last week, 100% last year, and a 5-year average of 100%; corn dough at 88% compared to 82% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; corn dented at 64% compared to 49% last week, 66% last year, and a 5-year average of 59%; and corn mature at 17% compared to 7% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. Cash prices ranged from $3.13 to $3.86 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $3.91, down 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.00 December 2024 Put Option costing 19 cents establishing a $3.81 futures floor. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.09, down 2 cents since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 33 under to 25 over the September futures con- tract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 9 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales cancellations of 1.6 million bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year and net sales of 61.6 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 2% compared to last week at 15.5 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 104%. September 2024 soybean futures closed at $9.52, up 14 cents since last Friday. For the week September 2024 soybean futures traded between $9.36 and $9.66. September 2024 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.59 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Nov/Jan future spreads were 21 and 38 cents. 

The Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 68% good-to-excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 95% compared to 91% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; and soybeans setting pods at 81% compared to 72% last week, 84% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 54% good-to- excellent and 17% poor-to-very poor; soybean blooming at 95% compared to 90% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; soybeans setting pods at 82% compared to 75% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%; and soybeans dropping leaves at 5% compared to 1% last year and a 5-year average of 1%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $8.79 to $9.51. November 2024 soybean futures closed at $9.73, up 16 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.80 November 2024 Put Option which would cost 32 cents and set a $9.48 futures floor. Nov/Dec soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.49 at the end of the week. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.90, up 14 cents since last Friday. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 22 were 65.09 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 67.09 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 0.55 cents to 55.9 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 93,000 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 4,900 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 29% compared to last week at 168,800 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 38% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 50%. 

The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 42% good-to-excellent and 26% poor-to-very poor; cotton setting bolls at 84% compared to 74% last week, 78% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%; and cotton bolls opening at 19% compared to 13% last week, 17% last year, and a 5-year average of 17%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 53% good-to- excellent and 20% poor-to-very poor; cotton setting bolls at 94% compared, 86% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; and cotton bolls opening at 8% compared to 4% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 4%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 70.91 cents, up 3.67 cents since last Friday. For the week December 2024 cotton futures traded between 67.24 and 71.25 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.37 cents and 2.47 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 71 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 3.72 cents establishing a 67.28 cent futures floor. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 72.28 cents, up 3.54 cents since last Friday. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 73.38 cents, up 3.39 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 18.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 6% compared to last week at 17.3 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 42% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 44%. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 96% compared to 93% last week, 95% last year, and a 5 -year average of 95%; spring wheat condition at 73% good-to-excellent compared to 5% poor-to-very poor; and spring wheat harvested at 31% compared to 18% last week, 35% last year, and a 5-year average of 36%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.74 to $4.88. September 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.02, down 28 cents since last Friday. September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.37. Sep/Mar and Sep/Jul future spreads were 26 and 65 cents. September 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.01 and $5.36 this week. December 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.28, down 24 cents since last Friday. 

July cash contracts ranged from $5.38 to $5.54. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.67, down 22 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2025 Put Option costing 49 cents establishing a $5.21 futures floor.  ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee