Yields Are Incredibly Variable Across The State Of Tennessee

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

There are parts of Tennessee that have cash prices for corn and soybeans within 25 cents of having prices start with a 2 or 8. Adding insult to injury the USDA released the August Crop Production report providing an initial Tennessee average corn yield estimate of 160 bu/acre, down 13 bu/acre compared to last year and 15 bu/acre below trend line and an average soybean yield of 49 bu/acre, down 2 bu/acre compared to last year. Yields are incredibly variable across the state, with better yields generally found in the north and west portion of the state and poorer yields in the south and east. While much of the country is looking at above average corn and soybean yields (which is one of the reasons for low futures prices), Tennessee is looking at below average yields and low prices, a double hit to the bottom line for Tennessee farmers. 

In addition to the Crop Production report on August 12th, the USDA released the August WASDE report and FSA Crop Acreage data. Overall, the reports are not supportive of price increases. As such, prices are likely to remain low through harvest with small seasonal increases possible towards the end of the year. 

The August WASDE report indicated record US corn and soybean yields of 183.1 bu/acre and 53.2 bu/acre. US corn, soybean, and cotton stocks were projected at 2.1 billion bushels, 560 million bushels, and 4.5 million bales. All three will mute the potential for price advances. Additional details of the August WASDE report for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, and the futures market price reaction, are available at: https://arec.tennessee.edu/extension/tennessee-market-highlights/monthly-crop- comments/. 

FSA crop acreage data indicated US corn acres planted at 89.1 million acres, soybeans at 86.0 million acres, upland cotton at 10.8 million acres, and wheat at 49.7 million acres. In Tennessee, 664,949 acres of corn, 1.786 million acres of soybeans, 262,200 acres of cotton, and 321,372 acres of wheat were planted. Revisions will be made as additional data is obtained from farmers. The FSA crop acreage data are compiled from producers submitting annual acreage reports regarding all cropland on their farms. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 60 under to 6 over, with an average of 35 under the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending August 9 was 1.072 million barrels per day, up 5,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.354 million barrels, down 0.413 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 2-8 were net sales of 4.7 million bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year and 31.5 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 21% compared to last week at 40.7 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. September 2024 corn futures closed at $3.70, down 6 cents since last Friday. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 22 and 41 cents. For the week September 2024 corn futures traded between $3.67 and $3.85. 

The Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 94% compared to 88% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%; corn dough or beyond at 60% compared to 46% last week, 60% last year, and a 5-year average of 56%; and corn dented at 18% compared to 7% last week, 15% last year, and a 5- year average of 12%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 55% good-to-excellent and 16% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 97% compared to 96% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; corn dough at 82% compared to 72% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%; corn dented at 49% compared to 29% last week, 50% last year, and a 5- year average of 41%; and corn mature at 7% compared to 3% last year and a 5-year average of 1%. Cash prices ranged from $3.22 to $3.89 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $3.92, down 3 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.00 December 2024 Put Option costing 20 cents establishing a $3.80 futures floor. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.11, down 1 cent since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West- Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 23 under to 22 over the September futures con- tract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 11 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 8.1 million bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year and 49.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 22% compared to last week at 15.8 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. September 2024 soybean futures closed at $9.38, down 50 cents since last Friday. For the week August 2024 soybean futures traded between $9.36 and $9.88. September 2024 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.54 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Nov/Jan future spreads were 19 and 38 cents. 

The Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 68% good-to-excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 91% compared to 86% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; and soybeans setting pods at 72% compared to 59% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 58% good-to- excellent and 13% poor-to-very poor; soybean blooming at 90% compared to 84% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 87%; and soybeans setting pods at 75% compared to 66% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 67%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.08 to $9.91. November 2024 soybean futures closed at $9.57, down 45 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.60 November 2024 Put Option which would cost 31 cents and set a $9.29 futures floor. Nov/Dec soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.44 at the end of the week. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.76, down 43 cents since last Friday. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 15 were 61.84 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 63.84 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 0.11 cents to 55.35 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 110,900 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 400 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 83% compared to last week at 131,300 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 37% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 49%. 

The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 46% good-to-excellent and 25% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 96% compared to 91% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; cotton setting bolls at 74% compared to 60% last week, 69% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%; and cotton bolls opening at 13% compared to 8% last week, 12% last year, and a 5-year average of 12%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 66% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 99% compared to 97% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; cotton setting bolls at 86% compared, 74% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; and cotton bolls opening at 4% compared to 2% last week, 4% last year, and a 5-year average of 2%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 67.24 cents, down 1.1 cents since last Friday. For the week December 2024 cotton futures traded between 67.05 and 70.8 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.5 cents and 2.75 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 68 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 3.59 cents establishing a 64.41 cent futures floor. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.74 cents, down 0.94 cents since last Friday. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.99 cents, down 0.92 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 14.7 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 2.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 1% compared to last week at 18.4 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 40% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 43%. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 93% compared to 88% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; spring wheat condition at 72% good-to-excellent compared to 5% poor-to-very poor; and spring wheat harvested at 18% compared to 6% last week, 20% last year, and a 5-year average of 21%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.83 to $4.92. September 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.30, down 12 cents since last Friday. September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.43. Sep/Mar and Sep/Jul future spreads were 22 and 59 cents. September 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.23 and $5.47 this week. December 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.65, down 13 cents since last Friday. 

July cash contracts ranged from $5.44 to $5.86. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.89, down 13 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.90 July 2025 Put Option costing 52 cents establishing a $5.38 futures floor.   ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee