Heifer Retention Like Cold Molasses

DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

The July 1 Cattle on Feed report included information concerning the percentage of cattle on feed that are heifers relative to the total number of cattle on feed. The report stated 39.6 percent of the cattle on feed were heifers, which is up slightly from the previous quarter and down slightly from the peak of this cycle. This is really the first meaningful information as it relates to heifer retention, because the use of this value prior to the July report would have included a large portion of heifers that were placed in feedlots during the 2023 drought. However, many of the heifers on feed now would have been placed during the first six months of 2024.

To put this in context, it is important to look at the percent of heifers on feed historically. Thus, the most convenient data to consider is the rebuilding years of 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the quantity of heifers on feed as a percent of total cattle on feed dipped to 30.9 percent in the second quarter with four consecutive quarters to follow that ranged from 32.2 percent to 32.5 percent. This time period corresponds to one of the fastest growing time periods in history as heifers were retained for breeding in earnest. The percent of heifers on feed as a total of all cattle on feed stayed below 35 percent the next 12 months, but the quantity of heifers entering the feedlot quickly escalated the second half of 2017 when cattle prices were absolutely dismal.

Since the last quarter of 2018, the quantity of heifers on feed as a percent of total cattle on feed has not been below 37.4 percent with much of the last three years flirting with 40 percent. The three years prior to herd expansion in 2015 saw the percent of heifers on feed largely range between 35 and 37 percent, which was preceded by higher percentages during the drought-stricken years of 2010 through 2012.

It is good to get a historical perspective, but history is useless if it is not applied to the present to help influence the future. Thus, what is known up to this point is that widespread heifer retention has not started at this point. This does not mean certain regions or individual producers are not expanding, but it does mean the industry as a whole is not expanding the beef cow herd yet. The general thought coming into 2024 was that significant beef cow herd expansion would not be able to occur until the second half of the year when producers would wean the spring born calf crop. There is still a hope of this occurring, but drought has subdued this expectation to some degree.

Many producers in the Southeast, Southern Plains and Northwest are being challenged with drought conditions, which is influencing forage production and already requiring some to dip into hay supplies. These types of conditions do not encourage cattle producers to retain or purchase heifers for breeding. In fact, drought coupled with cattle prices slipping has placed significant pressure on cattlemen who would like to expand the herd. There will certainly be opportunities for some regions of the country to retain heifers and grow the overall breeding herd this fall and winter, but producers in drought-stricken regions may be forced to thin herds further.

Looking forward, cattle prices will have to stabilize and drought be washed away for any significant heifer retention to drive breeding herd growth. From the perspective of the percentage of heifers on feed, heifer retention will become evident when 33 percent or less of the cattle on feed are heifers. The 33 percent level does not equate to rapid heifer retention, but it will result in slow retention. A value closer to 30 percent would indicate rapid heifer retention outside of feedlots, and it would be easy to assume they are being retained as replacement females.

From a business standpoint, it would be better for heifer retention to be as slow as molasses on a cold winter day, because a slow to moderate pace allows cattle producers to capitalize on higher prices for a longer period of time. Despite slow cow herd growth being the best thing for the producer, every producer is acting independently. ∆

DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH: University of Tennessee