November Soybean Contract Closed Above The Current Contract Low

DR. AARON SMITH

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

Soybean futures prices took it on the chin on Friday with the front three contracts declining over 30 cents for the day. The November soybean contract closed the week at $10.48 1⁄2, 16 3⁄4 cents above the current contract low. Soybean prices were pressured lower on improved weather forecasts and weak export sales data. Nationally only 4% of soybean production is estimated to be within an area experiencing drought. Next week it will be crucial for soybean futures to hold the current contract low of $10.31 3⁄4 or further weakness towards $10.00 is likely to occur. 

For the last three weeks, nearby corn futures have traded mostly between $3.90 to $4.10. September corn futures started out the week with gains of 9 3⁄4, 2 1⁄4, 1 1⁄4, and 2 1⁄4 cents before declining 11 1⁄2 cents on Friday. Next week will be key to determining if the current bottom holds or if there are further declines in prices. The 30-day NOAA forecast has above average temperatures creeping into the picture for the month of August. Precipitation is projected to average across most of the Corn Belt. 

December cotton futures prices are seeking a bottom. Prices have stair stepped down from 82-84 cents in February/March, to 76-78 cents in April/May, to 70-74 cents in May through early July, and currently reside at 68 cents. Cotton prices continue to struggle due to weak global demand, abundant US stocks, and decent US production forecasts. Prices are likely to form a bottom near 67 cents before a rally occurs. Unfortunately, the price recovery is likely to be a slow process. The chances of getting prices to 80 cents before the end of 2024 seem very low. Prices are likely to trade mostly in the low 70s until more production information is available for the 2024 crop. 

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 70 under to 15 over, with an average of 18 under the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending July 12 was 1.095 million barrels per day, down 11,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.723 million barrels, down 0.563 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for July 12-18 were net sales of 13 million bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year and 29.3 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 10% compared to last week at 47.6 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 97% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. September 2024 corn futures closed at $3.94, up 4 cents since last Friday. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 16 and 30 cents. For the week September 2024 corn futures traded between $3.91 and $4.09. 

The Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 61% compared to 41% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 56%; and corn dough or beyond at 17% compared to 8% last week, 13% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 51% good-to-excellent and 22% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 87% compared to 81% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 86%; and corn dough at 48% compared to 30% last week, 47% last year, and a 5-year average of 42%. New crop cash prices ranged from $3.35 to $4.11 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $4.10, up 6 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.20 December 2024 Put Option costing 25 cents establishing a $3.95 futures floor. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.24, up 6 cents since last Friday. 

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 25 under to 15 over the August futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 5 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 3.3 million bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year and 30.5 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 84% compared to last week at 13.5 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. August 2024 soybean futures closed at $10.77, down 20 cents since last Friday. For the week August 2024 soybean futures traded between $10.71 and $11.29. September 2024 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.64 at the end of the week. Aug/ Sep and Aug/Nov future spreads were -35 and -29 cents. September 2024 soybean futures closed at $10.42, up 6 cents since last Friday. 

The Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 68% good-to-excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 65% compared to 51% last week, 66% last year, and a 5-year average of 60%; and soybeans setting pods at 29% compared to 18% last week, 31% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 58% good-to- excellent and 16% poor-to-very poor; soybean blooming at 70% compared to 61% last week, 70% last year, and a 5-year average of 59%; and soybeans setting pods at 41% compared to 31% last week, 39% last year, and a 5-year average of 30%. New crop cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.14 to $10.75. November 2024 soybean futures closed at $10.48, up 12 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.60 November 2024 Put Option which would cost 44 cents and set a $10.16 futures floor. Nov/Dec soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.56 at the end of the week. 

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 25 were 62.21 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 64.21 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 1.4 cents to 55.02 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net cancellations of 74,200 bales for the 2023/24 marketing year – a marketing year low - and net sales of 285,900 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 16% compared to last week at 131,300 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 119% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5- year average of 117%. 

The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 53% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 81% compared to 64% last week, 74% last year, and a 5-year average of 76%; and cotton setting bolls at 42% compared to 27% last week, 34% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 55% good-to-excellent and 22% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 87% compared to 84% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 81%; and cotton setting bolls at 52% compared, 32% last week, 39% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 67.99 cents, down 2.71 cents since last Friday. For the week December 2024 cotton futures traded between 67.5 and 71.23 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.77 cents and 3.14 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 68 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 3.03 cents establishing a 64.97 cent futures floor. 

March 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.76 cents, down 2.86 cents since last Friday. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 71.13 cents, down 2.87 cents since last Friday. 

Wheat 

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 11.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 57% compared to last week at 10.0 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 36% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 37%. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 76% compared to 71% last week, 65% last year, and a 5 -year average of 72%; spring wheat condition at 77% good-to-excellent compared to 5% poor-to-very poor; and spring wheat headed at 89% compared to 76% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.56 to $5.28. September 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.23, down 19 cents since last Friday. September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.33. Sep/Mar and Sep/Jul future spreads were 46 and 63 cents. September 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.22 and $5.55 this week. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.69, down 19 cents since last Friday. 

July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.86, down 17 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.90 July 2025 Put Option costing 55 cents establishing a $5.35 futures floor.  ∆

DR. AARON SMITH: University of Tennessee