THE BIRD FLU…THREAT OR SCAM?
ROB MILLS
PERRYVILLE, MISSOURI
In 2005 the notion that a pandemic could hit the United States, even the world was not a topic you ever heard about. Not unless someone who was considered to have a penchant for theatrics and liked to discuss Armageddon scenarios was at the public podium.
I once worked for a man who was very smart, occasionally saying things that were worth remembering. One topic he would occasionally discuss in our office was the potential of a viral outbreak that could kill millions of people globally. He was an amateur epidemiologist, having survived more than one bout with cancer. He spoke intelligently when the issue of pandemics came up.
Around that time warnings began to come out of our nation’s Capital that there was a virus that greatly concerned the CDC lurking in the United States. Named the “Bird Flu”, it was raising havoc in our food supply as it found its way into poultry producing facilities across the U.S., infecting chickens. The Federal Government was so concerned about the spread of the virus that they killed over 20 million birds to keep them from going to market. There were high profile appearances on network television, including one on ABC’s legendary “Nightline” with Ted Koppel, warning about the bird flu. Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), who was himself an M.D., spoke of the fact that it was not a matter of “if” but “when” trouble would strike. But what was he talking about, this “if” scenario? The public probably thought they’ll kill the chickens; we’ll pay a huge price hike to buy them temporarily and then it will all go away. It eventually did…for a while. But there were still concerns about more than the food supply related to this influenza.
The nightmare scenario that didn’t emerge was the crossover of the bird flu into the human population, causing a death toll that the medical community feared would have rivaled the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. But even with the arrival and passage of the COVID pandemic from 2020-2022, medical professionals have kept a wary eye on the periodic bird flu activity that flares up now and then. When a major event began to take place earlier this year, it once again revealed the concern the medical community has about the virus. The concern that the H5N1 bug will eventually mutate, attack humans and kill millions of people.
As of mid-July, the CDC was updating through periodic statements, the spread of the H5N1 virus in poultry and dairy cows. Several million chickens have been “culled” (nice word for killed) in the U.S. in 2024, with the most recent outbreak taking place in Colorado, where nearly two million birds were eliminated. The virus has been confirmed in cattle in Texas, Michigan and Colorado. Killing farm animals is one thing. But dealing with the crossover of the virus into humans is another issue altogether. And it’s begun to happen in the U.S.
One observer who keeps close tabs on the H5N1 virus is Phil Lempert. An expert on the dealings of the retail and restaurant food industries, Lempert is in daily contact with the people who make the trains run on time when it comes to food production, distribution and sales in the U.S. His resume includes…correspondent for NBC’s TODAY show, a regular on The View, columnist for Forbes.com, and his hosting of the Farm Food Facts, Lost In The Supermarket and The Lempert Report podcasts. He is known as America’s “Supermarket Guru”.
In a recent phone interview with MAFG from his office in Los Angeles, we talked about the origins of the bird flu, the distrust American consumers have for corporate food producers and distributors, and the concerns that still exist about the threat H5N1 could eventually pose to the American and global populations.
“Bird Flu originated in Asia” he related, going on to say that “the CDC believes that the problem with the spread of the disease stems from the shifting of migratory patterns and also climate change.” According to the CDC, the H5N1 virus surfaced in Hong Kong in 1997. But it’s been on the radar of epidemiologists since the end of the 19thcentury.
“The 2005 scare was dodging a bullet”, he said noting that “health care professionals are very concerned about where mutation can take all of this.” Lempert added that “animal testing ability is far better today, but there is concern about virus expansion and just what can be done about it.”
There was only one confirmed case of “Bird Flu” in humans in the U.S. before this year. In 2024 that alarmingly changed. This year alone there have been 13 cases confirmed by the CDC, due to the outbreak of the virus in Colorado poultry, and the exposure of workers to the flu. Globally, there have been 94 cases of the H9N2 mutant virus in the Western Pacific Region since December 2015, according to the World Health Organization. And two deaths have been attributed to that outbreak.
But as alarming as the trend of human infection is, Lempert says the culling of birds and the slaughter of dairy cattle leads to a continual escalation of prices at the store, a trend that angers consumers and causes deep distrust in a time where conspiracy theories fill social media, the airwaves and every day talk among the American people. According to Lempert, that’s where this hits home for the average American.
“This is the situation in the U.S”, he began. “Consumers go about their business. They hear all the news out there. Then they go to the store. Eggs are escalating price wise, milk prices continue to soar, they deal with shortages, still fatigued from the pandemic, and they are seething.” Then he draws his focus upon the object of their anger. “You look at practices like shrinkflation, which is nothing more than an attempt to fool people. Then you hear about these historic profits that are being made at the retail grocery level in such a difficult time for so many households, and the questions that arise in people’s minds are not good. And it just fuels the overall atmosphere of negativity that is flooding the country,” he concluded.
The San Francisco Chronicle reported in its July 29th edition that the conditions surrounding the spread of H5N1 in California are beginning to echo the early pandemic days of 2020. “It’s Déjà vu…or Groundhog Day” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California-San Francisco. Scientists say the current risk to people is considered low. But Chin-Hong says the lack of viable testing for human detection is concerning. (The symptoms of bird flu in a human being are almost identical to what is commonly referred to as common influenza)
Reuters reported on July 2nd that a growing consensus is emerging among some in the U.S. scientific community that the “bird flu” is a pandemic “unfolding in slow motion,” targeting humans as well as animals. Given the rancor that existed in the medical community over Covid-19, a true threat to the U.S and global population would have to be clearly established, to avoid the dissension that racked the medical community during the pandemic.
With the present concern about the effect of H5N1 on human health grabbing the headlines, from an agricultural perspective another dark scenario exists. The potential that the virus is not a significant threat to the human population but could wreak havoc on the food supply of the globe. One can understand the American people being angry about the prices they pay at the grocery store, as price stability seems to slowly slip away as a part of daily life.
But that the unthinkable scenario that food security itself could become an issue for an entire population, that’s hard to comprehend. It turns life into a John le Carre’ novel, or… as the late Senator Tom Eagleton of Missouri might have said…” that’s pure end times baby!” ∆
ROB MILLS: MidAmerica Farmer Grower Contributing Writer