Dry June May Limit Corn Crop Potential

ROBERT NATHAN GREGORY

STARKVILLE, MISSISSIPPI

Yield quality for Mississippi’s corn crop this year will largely hinge on which fields were irrigated and which ones were dry land.

“Corn crop condition varies considerably depending on whether it is grown in fields with supplemental irrigation or not,” said Erick Larson, grain crops specialist with the Mississippi State University Extension Service. “Mississippi corn dependent on rain has gone since early June without much appreciable rainfall, so the crop outlook has diminished considerably in that time.”

Producers planted about 580,000 acres of corn in the state this year, which is down 27 percent from 2023, when 790,000 acres were planted.

“Growers increased soybean and cotton acreages, so corn acreage is off the pace this year because of that and some other issues associated with high input prices and fertilizer lingering from a couple of years ago,” Larson said. “Unfortunately, heat and drought stress during late June and July may further reduce crop expectations. Most of the Mississippi corn crop will not mature until the end of July to mid-August, so the next couple of weeks will influence what kind of crop potential we have.”

The scaled back acreage also comes down to prices, which MSU Extension agricultural economist Will Maples said are down from the recent highs of the last few years. The December 2024 corn futures contract averaged $4.10 as of July 15, compared to $5 a year ago. The USDA is projecting an average price of $4.30 per bushel for the 2024-25 marketing year.

“The biggest factor currently suppressing prices is the outlook for a good crop in the Midwest. USDA increased total corn acreage in the June acreage report to 91.5 million acres, and growing conditions indicate the trend line to be above trend line yields across much of the Midwest,” Maples said. “While there have been isolated weather issues, most of the region has received timely rains. A positive production outlook, coupled with higher stocks, is making the supply side of the balance sheet very bearish.

“Given the current price environment, corn margins will be very tight for most producers in Mississippi,” he added. “My advice to producers would be to know their cost of production and make a sale if a profitable price presents itself. If they have storage available, they need to start weighing the pros and cons of various marketing strategies and develop a plan for post-harvest.”

Planting days for this year’s corn crop were scattered across late February to early May due to frequent springtime rainfall, especially in the Delta.

“Depending on what part of the state you’re in, you’ll have a fair distribution range of the ages of corn,” Larson said. “We’ve had some of it that was planted relatively early in April or late March, and it’s approaching maturity.”

Preston Aust, MSU Extension agriculture and natural resource agent based in Humphreys County, said the crop has seen little in the way of damage from insects or diseases in west Mississippi.

“Planting season was challenging because we’d only have a day or two in the field before getting rained out and having to sit for a week before we could plant again,” he said. “Summertime temperatures heated up in late June, and drought has been prevalent for over a month. This has led to considerable stress, particularly to the state’s considerable dryland corn acreage.”

Aust expected early-planted corn to reach the physiological maturity needed to begin harvest just before July ends.

“Slightly cooler temperatures are helping with irrigated acres, allowing growers to shut down irrigation and stay on cruise control until they see black layers forming on the corn,” he said.

Find current information about the Mississippi corn crop and the state’s other major row crops at https://www.mississippi-crops.com.   ∆