Production Forecasts For 2023/24 Raised For Sri Lanka; Lowered For The Philippines

Global rice production in 2023/24 is projected at a record 513.7 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million from last month’s forecast and 0.8 million tons above a year earlier. This month, increased production forecasts for Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan more than offset reductions for the Philippines and Kazakhstan (table C, following maps 1 and 2). 

On an annual basis, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, Colombia, Egypt, the European Union, Ghana, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, the United States, and Uruguay account for the bulk of the expected increase in global rice production in 2023/24 (see maps 1 and 2 for additional details). Pakistan and the United States are projected to achieve the largest production gains in 2023/24. Both countries harvested abnormally small crops in 2022/23 due to adverse weather. 

Total global rice supplies in 2023/24 are projected at 690.1 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous forecast but still 6.2 million tons below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of declining global rice supplies (table D). The upward supply revision is the result of a 0.2- million-ton increase in the 2023/24 global production forecast and a 0.5-million-ton increase in the 2023/24 carryin estimate. Sri Lanka accounts for most of the increase in the 2023/24 global production forecast. Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam account for most of the increase in the 2023/24 global carryin estimate. 

The year-to-year decline in global rice supplies in 2023/24 is the result of a 6.9-million-ton decrease in the 2023/24 carryin to 176.3 million tons, more than offsetting an 0.8-million-ton projected increase in global production. China accounts for the bulk of the decline in global carryin in 2023/24, with China’s 2023/4 carryin dropping 6.4 million tons to 106.6 million. 

Global domestic and residual use in 2023/24 is projected at a record 522.9 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from the previous forecast and 3.0 million tons larger than a year earlier, exceeding production by 9.2 million tons (table D). Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Tanzania account for most of this month’s upward revision in global domestic and residual use. On an annual basis, India’s 2023/24 domestic and residual use is projected to increase nearly 3.5 million tons to a record 118.0 million. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected increase nearly 0.54 million tons to a record 5.1 million. 

Global ending stocks in 2023/24 are projected at 167.2 million tons, fractionally below the previous forecast, 9.2 million tons smaller than a year earlier, and the smallest in 6 years. This month, reductions in 2023/24 ending stocks forecasts for China, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United State barely offset increased forecasts for Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. 

China and India account for the bulk of the year-to-year decline in global ending stocks. China’s 2023/24 ending stocks are projected to decline 5 percent to 101.4 million, and India’s are projected to decrease 6 percent to 33.0 million. Despite these expected declines in stocks, China and India together still account for more than 80 percent of global ending stocks. The 2023/24 global ending stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 32.0 percent, down from 33.9 percent a year earlier and the smallest since 2016/17. 

Export Forecasts for 2024 Raised for Pakistan and the United States 

Global rice trade in calendar year 2024 is projected at 52.4 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.4 million tons smaller than a year earlier. Global rice trade in 2023 of 52.8 million tons was 3.3 million tons below the year-earlier record high (table D). The substantial decline in global rice trade in 2023 and the projected decrease in 2024 are largely due to export bans and other export restrictions implemented by the Government of India in 2022 and 2023. 

Export revisions this month for 2024 are small, with increases for Pakistan and the United States accounting for all of the upward revision. On the 2024 import side, forecasts are raised this month for Indonesia, Mozambique, Oman, Saudia Arabia, Tanzania, Thailand, and the United States, but lowered for China, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Syria, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. There are numerous export and import revisions for 2023 this month, mostly based on final or near-final trade data (tables E and F). 

Over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most grades of regular (neither parboiled nor aromatic) whole-grain milled rice from Thailand decreased 1–2 percent, mostly due to the weakening of the Thai baht. In addition, prices are being pressured lower on expectations of supplies entering the export market from Thailand’s dry season crop harvest to begin in late February. For the week ending February 6, Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B long-grain milled rice for export was quoted at $647 per ton, down $12 from the week ending January 9. Despite the recent declines, Thailand’s rice trading prices continue to be supported by India’s export bans and restrictions. 

Price quotes for 5-percent brokens from Vietnam for the week ending February 6 also declined, dropping $20 per ton from the month ending January 9 to $645 per ton. Price quotes for rice from Pakistan were reported at $618 per ton for the week ending February 6, down just $2 from the week ending January 9 as strong demand was offset by a bumper crop. Price quotes for regular-milled white rice from India have been unavailable since the country’s imposition of an export ban on July 20. In South America, price quotes for 5-percent brokens from Argentina for the week ending February 6 were reported at $740 per ton, down $30 from the week ending January 9 (figure 5). In contrast to Argentina, price quotes from Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay rose over the past month. 

U.S. trading prices for long-grain and medium-grain milled rice were unchanged over the past month. Prices for U.S. long-grain milled rice, Number 2 Grade, 4-percent broken kernels (Iraqi specifications) were quoted at $765 per ton for the week ending February 6, unchanged since late November and the highest since early November 2008. U.S. price quotes for Latin American markets are also unchanged from a month earlier, quoted at $730 per ton for the week ending February 6. Price quotes for California medium-grain milled-rice, Number 1 Grade, 4-percent brokens, remain quoted at $950 per ton (free on board at a domestic mill) for the 

week ending February 6, unchanged from the week ending December 5. The California price quote is down $700 per ton from the mid-September record high and is the lowest since early May 2021. For listings of trading prices by exporter and grade of rice, see table 10 in the Rice Outlook Monthly Table file that is posted on the Rice Outlook web page concurrently with the most recent issue of the Rice Outlook report. ∆

USDA/ARS