Domestic Outlook On Rice

The only supply-side revision this month to the 2023/24 U.S. rice balance sheet is a 1.0-million hundredweight (cwt) increase in the import forecast to 43.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest on record. Long-grain accounts for all of the upward revision in imports. At a record 36.0 million cwt, U.S. long-grain imports are up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 13 percent larger than a year earlier. 

The upward revision in long-grain imports is based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census trade data for August‒December 2023 and expectations regarding purchases for January‒July 2024. Through December, the United States imported 494,015 tons (product weight) of long-grain rice, up 25 percent from a year earlier, with monthly shipments exceeding 100,000 tons in September and November. Thailand accounts for around 60 percent of the long-grain imports and most of the year-to-year increase. Through December, the United States had received 287,807 tons of long-grain rice from Thailand, up 34 percent from a year earlier. Almost all of this rice is jasmine, a fragrant (or aromatic) rice. India is the next largest supplier of long-grain rice to the United States. Through December, the United States had received 122,915 tons of long-grain rice from India, up 21 percent from a year earlier. Almost all of this rice is basmati, also a fragrant rice. Pakistan provides much smaller amounts of basmati rice as well. The United States does not currently grow these Asian aromatic varieties. Brazil typically supplies broken kernel rice to the United States when U.S. supplies of brokens are tight. 

Medium- and short-grain imports in 2023/24 remain projected at 7.0 million cwt, down 13 percent from a year earlier. The decline is based on the expected absence of Australia from the U.S. import market. In 2022/23, Australia shipped more than 38,000 tons of medium- and short- grain rice to the United States because of a drought-reduced California harvest. China is again expected to supply four shipments of 21,000 tons each of medium- and short-grain rice to Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory. The first shipment arrived in October. Thailand and India supply most of the remainder of the U.S. medium- and short-grain rice, shipping specialty rices classified as medium- and short-grain. Italy consistently provides smaller quantities of its arborio rice. 

U.S. rice production in 2023/24 remains estimated at 218.3 million, 36 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 2020/21. The production increase is primarily due to a 32- percent expansion in harvested area to 2.85 million acres, with area increasing in both the South and California. The U.S. average yield of 7,649 pounds per acre is up almost 4 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain production of 153.9 million cwt is up 20 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 2020/21. Combined medium- and short-grain production of 64.4 million cwt is up 104 percent from a year earlier – mostly due to drought recovery in California –  and is the largest since 2011/12. 

The higher import forecast raised the 2023/24 total supply forecast 1.0 million cwt to 291.5 million, 22 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 2016/17. Long-grain supplies of 211.0 million cwt are up 14 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2020/21. Combined medium- and short-grain supplies of 78.2 million cwt are 47.5 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 2016/17. 

The total U.S. rice export forecast for 2023/24 is raised 2.0 million cwt to 87.0 million cwt, 35 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2020/21. Long-grain rough rice accounts for all of this month’s upward revision in the U.S. rice export forecast. 

U.S. long-grain exports are forecast at 63.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million from the previous forecast and 26 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision is largely based on shipment and sales data through late January and expectations regarding shipments for the remainder of the market year. Shipments through late January were well ahead of a year earlier across Latin America, especially to Mexico and Venezuela. In Mexico, Central America, and Venezuela, the United States is regaining markets lost in recent years to South American exporters due to tight U.S. supplies and uncompetitive prices. U.S. will likely again face competition from South American exporters in these markets this spring as the South American harvests get fully underway. 

U.S. medium- and short-grain exports remain forecast at 24.0 million cwt, 66 percent larger than a year earlier. The projected export expansion is based on a bumper California harvest, as prices for California milled rice have already dropped more than 40 percent since their mid- September record highs. California supplies the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports. Northeast Asia is the largest market for U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, followed by Jordan, Canada, Mexico, and Israel. 

For the second consecutive month, the U.S. rough-rice export forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt, now forecast at 33.0 million, up 82 percent from a year earlier. The upward revision is based on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments through January 25, and expectations regarding sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. Stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to Mexico and Venezuela account for most of this month’s upward revision in rough-rice exports. Mexico, Central America, and Venezuela account for nearly all of the expected year-to-year increase in rough-rice exports. In 2022/23, the United States lost much of its market share in Mexico to South American suppliers, mostly Brazil, due to their more competitive prices and also partly due to lower tariff rates for South American suppliers to Mexico. 

Milled rice exports remain forecast at 54.0 million cwt, 17 percent above the year earlier abnormally low level. Northeast Asia is expected to remain the largest market for U.S. milled rice, taking exclusively medium- and short-grain. Haiti is expected to remain the largest market for U.S. long-grain milled rice, taking mostly long-grain. Canada is also a regular market for U.S. milled rice, taking mostly long-grain. 

Total U.S. 2023/24 domestic and residual use remains forecast at a record 162.0 million cwt, up 12 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at a record 125.0 million, up nearly 10 percent than a year earlier. Most of the year-to-year increase in long-grain domestic and residual use is based on larger supplies and increased post-harvest losses due to a larger crop. In addition, reports of lower-than-average milling rates this year across the South indicate that more rough rice is needed to produce a given quantity of milled rice. Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 37.0 million, up 19 percent from a year earlier. In contrast to the South, milling rates in California, which produces more than two-thirds of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop, have been reported above average so far. Similar to long-grain, the substantial year-to-year increase in medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is based on larger supplies and expected increased post- harvest losses. 

The stronger export forecast more than offsets increased imports, lowering the ending stocks forecast 1.0 million cwt to 42.5 million, still 41 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2020/21. Long-grain ending stocks are projected to increase 9 percent to 23.0 million cwt. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are projected to increase 153 percent to 17.2 million cwt. 

There were no changes to the 2023/24 season-average farm-price (SAFP) forecasts this month, with the all-rice SAFP forecast at $18.40 per cwt, down $1.40 from the year earlier revised record. On January 31, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported revised monthly cash prices and marketings for 2022/23 for all-rice, long-grain, and medium- and short-grain rice, and revised monthly cash prices for California and Southern medium- and short-grain rice. The 2022/23 all-rice SAFP was raised 60 cents to a record $19.80 per cwt, up $3.70 from a year earlier. The 2022/23 long-grain SAFP remains forecast at a record $16.70 per cwt, up $3.10 from a year earlier. 

The U.S. 2022/23 medium- and short-grain SAFP was raised $4.40 per cwt to a record $33.80, up $7.40 from a year earlier. The California 2022/23 SAFP was increased $4.90 per cwt to a record $40.90, up $9.00 from a year earlier. The Southern 2022/23 medium- and short-grain SAFP remains unchanged at $18.20 per cwt, up $4.30 from a year earlier.  ∆

USDA REPORTS