Tennessee Cattle Inventory
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
Cattle production is an integral component of Tennessee agriculture, but the headwinds of drought, high interest rates, increasing land prices, and other factors have resulted in a decline in cattle inventory in the state. Cattle and calves totaled 1.6 million head as of January 1, 2024. This is a decline of 80,000 head (4.8 percent) compared to the previous year, and is the lowest cattle inventory in the state since 1951. Beef cow inventory at the first of the year totaled 835,000 head, which was 19,000 head (2.2 percent) fewer than the previous year while the dairy cow herd declined 1,000 head to 25,000 head. Thus, 25 percent of the total decline in cattle and calves was cows.
A similar story holds for heifers held for beef and dairy cow replacement. The number of beef heifers held for beef cow replacement totaled 105,000 head as of January 1, 2024, which is 5,000 head (4.5 percent) less than the previous year. Heifers held for dairy cow replacement totaled 14,000 head and was 1,000 head (6.7 percent) less than a year ago. The prospects of growing the cattle herd in Tennessee the first half of the year do not look promising in that the quantity of other heifers weighing more than 500 pounds only totaled 76,000 head, which is a 14,000 head (15.6 percent) decline compared to the previous year. Thus, it is unlikely there will be many females to add to the cattle herd other than those already set aside for replacement. It will likely be the second half of the year before many decisions are made on retaining a large quantity of heifers.
Switching gears, the Tennessee calf crop in 2023 was estimated at 820,000 head, which is 30,000 head (3.5 percent) less than 2022. This is important for many of the stocker producers in the state as there are fewer cattle to enter stocker operations in the state. These numbers will only get tighter as the 2024 calf crop will certainly be smaller than in 2023. This will most likely push calf prices higher throughout 2024 and require a larger capital investment to purchase these lightweight cattle. This competition will not only come from local stocker producers, but out of state stocker operations and an increase in interest from feedlots. As the number of feeder cattle declines, the market will see increased interest in lighter weight cattle to enter the feedlot. They will want to feed them longer to keep pen space filled. This will especially be true if feed prices decline in the coming months.
The trends in Tennessee cattle inventory follow the national inventory trends fairly closely. All cattle and calves totaled 87.2 million head on January 1, 2024, which is 1.9 percent (1.7 million head) lower than the previous year. Beef cow inventory totaled 28.2 million head at the first of the year, representing a decline of 716,300 head (-2.5 percent) compared to the previous year. Dairy cow inventory declined 40,700 head (0.4 percent) compared to 2023. The smaller beef and dairy cow inventory resulted in a smaller calf crop in 2023. The 2023 calf crop was estimated at 33.6 million head, which is an 846,500 head (2.5 percent) decline compared to 2022. Lastly, heifers for beef replacement totaled 4.86 million head, which is 71,300 head (1.4 percent) less than the previous year.
These are the lowest cattle inventory numbers since 1951, which means a person would have to be 72 years old or older to have lived through a time period with fewer cattle in this country. One would think heifer retention would begin in earnest when forage conditions improve, because cattle prices are moving in a direction that is favorable for profitability. There are no guarantees conditions will be favorable in 2024, but it would be wise for producers to consider growing the cattle herd a little slower this time around than they did from 2014 to 2016. One thing that is for certain is that any heifers retained or purchased will be some of the most expensive females to enter the cow herd in several years. ∆
DR. ANDREW P. GRIFFITH: University of Tennessee