Production Forecasts For 2023/24 Raised For Argentina, South Korea, Paraguay, And Thailand; Lowered For Colombia, Haiti, Mozambique, And Uganda
INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK
Global rice production in 2023/24 is projected at a record 518.1 million tons (milled basis), up 271,000 tons from last month’s forecast and 5.1 million tons larger than a year earlier. This month, upward production revisions for Argentina, South Korea, Paraguay, and Thailand slightly offset downward revisions for Colombia, Haiti, Mozambique, and Uganda (table D, following maps 1 and 2).
On an annual basis, Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, China, Colombia, Egypt, the European Union, Ghana, Guyana, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Malysia, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, the United States, and Vietnam account for the bulk of the expected increase in global rice production in 2023/24 (see maps 1 and 2 for additional details). In contrast, rice production in 2023/24 is projected to decline almost 3.8 million tons in India to 132.0 million—though this is still the second highest on record. Thailand’s 2023/24 rice production is projected to decline 0.9 million tons to 20.0 million. Indonesia’s 2023/24 rice production is projected to decline 500,000 tons to 33.5 million due to a delayed start to the rainy season. Rice production is projected to continue to decline in Japan and South Korea due to diet diversification and declining and aging populations. Weaker crops are also projected in 2023/24 for Costa Rica, Ecuador, Laos, Mali, Nepal, Nigeria, Turkey, and Uzbekistan (maps 1 and 2).
Total global rice supplies in 2023/24 are projected at 692.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast but 2.9 million tons below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of declining global rice supplies (table E). The small upward supply revision is the result of a 271,000-ton increase in the 2023/24 global production forecast, more than offsetting a 43,000- ton reduction in the 2023/24 carryin forecast. Colombia and Pakistan account for most of the reduction in the 2023/24 carryin estimate.
The year-to-year decline in global supplies in 2023/24 is the result of an 8.0-million-ton reduction in the 2023/24 carryin to 174.74 million tons, more than offsetting a 5.1-million-ton increase in global production. China accounts for most of the decline in global beginning stocks in 2023/24, with its carryin dropping 6.4 million tons to 106.6 million. Vietnam’s carryin decreased 1.1 million tons to 1.6 million. In contrast, the 2023/24 rice carryin for Indonesia rose 1.1 million tons to 4.0 million, and the Philippines’ carryin increased 375,000 tons to 3.48 million.
Global domestic and residual use in 2023/24 is projected at a record 525.0 million tons, down 114,000 tons from the previous forecast but up almost 4.1 million tons from a year earlier, exceeding production by 7.0 million tons (table E). Domestic and residual use forecasts are lowered this month for China, Colombia, Jordan, Kenya, Mozambique, Nepal, Pakistan, Syria, and Uganda, but raised for Argentina, India, and Uzbekistan. India’s 2023/24 domestic and residual use forecast is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 118.0 million, 3.5 million tons larger than a year earlier. Last month, the Government of India announced it would extend its free food-grain plan for five years beginning January 1, 2024. More than 813 million citizens in India are eligible for free food grains under the National Food Security Act.
Global ending stocks in 2023/24 are projected at 167.8 million tons, 342,000 tons above the previous forecast, but 7.0 million tons smaller than a year earlier and the smallest in 6 years. Thailand accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in 2023/24 global ending stocks, raised 300,000 tons to 2.64 million tons, down 650,000 tons from a year earlier. Ending stocks forecasts were also raised this month for Argentina, Kenya, Paraguay, and Sri Lanka.
China and India account for the bulk of the year-to-year decline in global ending stocks. China’s 2023/24 ending stocks are projected to decline 2.1 million tons to 104.5 million, and India’s are projected to decrease 2.5 million tons to 32.5 million. Despite these expected declines in stocks, China and India together still account for nearly 82 percent of global ending stocks. The 2023/24 global ending stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 32.0 percent, down from 33.5 percent a year earlier and the smallest since 2016/17.
India’s 2023 and 2024 Export Forecasts Lowered, China’s 2023 and 2024 Import Forecasts Reduced
Global rice trade in calendar year 2024 is projected at 52.1 million tons (milled basis), down 710,000 tons from the previous forecast and 270,000 tons smaller than the year-earlier revised forecast of 52.4 million tons. Global rice trade in 2023 is down 1.4 million tons from the November forecast and 3.7 million tons below a year earlier (tables F and G). The substantial decline in global rice trade in 2023 and lack of any increase in 2024 are largely based on export bans and other export restrictions by the Government of India.
This month, export forecasts for 2024 were lowered for India but raised for Argentina, Paraguay, and Thailand. On an annual basis, in 2024, exports are projected to decline from a year earlier for India, Paraguay, Thailand, and Vietnam, but are projected to increase for Argentina, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, China, Pakistan, the United States, and Uruguay.
On the 2024 import side, forecasts are lowered this month for China, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Nepal, and Syria, but raised for Kazakhstan, South Korea, the United States, and Uzbekistan. On an annual basis, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Mozambique, North Korea, Singapore, Tanzania, Togo, and Vietnam account for the bulk of the projected decline in global rice imports in 2024. In contrast, imports are projected to increase in 2024 in Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Ethiopia, Iran, South Korea, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mexico, Nepal, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Yemen.
Over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most grades of regular (neither parboiled nor aromatic) whole-grain milled rice from Thailand increased 8–10 percent, mostly due to the strengthening of the Thai baht. For the week ending December 5, Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B long-grain milled rice for export was quoted at $641 per ton, up $58 from the week ending November 7 and the highest since mid-August. Global rice trading prices continue to be supported by India’s export bans and restrictions.
Price quotes for 5-percent brokens from Vietnam for the week ending December 5 were $665 per ton, up $5 from the week ending November 7 and the highest since July 2008. The increase is due to tight supplies, rising farm prices for rice in Vietnam, and a strong global demand for Vietnam’s rice. Price quotes for rice from Pakistan were reported at $578 per ton for the week ending December 5, up $13 from the week ending November 7 due to strong demand. Price quotes for regular-milled white rice from India have been unavailable since its imposition of an export ban on July 20. In South America, price quotes for 5-percent brokens from Argentina for the week ending December 5 were reported at $770 per ton, up $20 from the week ending November 14 due to a tightening of supplies (figure 5). Price quotes from Brazil and Uruguay also rose over the past month and are higher than U.S. prices.
U.S. trading prices for long-grain milled rice rose slightly over the past month. Prices for U.S. long-grain milled rice, Number 2 Grade, 4-percent broken kernels (Iraqi specifications) were quoted at $765 per ton for the week ending December 5, up $5 from mid-November and the highest since early November 2008. U.S. price quotes for Latin American markets are also up $5 from a month earlier, quoted at $730 per ton for the week ending December 5. Price quotes for California medium-grain milled-rice, Number 1 Grade, 4-percent brokens, were quoted at $950 per ton (free on board at a domestic mill) for the week ending December 5, down $50 from the week ending November 7. The California price quote is down $700 per ton from mid- September and is the lowest since early May 2021. For listings of trading prices by exporter and grade of rice, see table 10 in the Rice Outlook Monthly Table file that is posted on the Rice Outlook web page concurrently with the most recent issue of the Rice Outlook report. ∆
USDA/ARS