U.S. 2023/24 Rice Import Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt To A Record 40.0 Million

Domestic Outlook

The only supply-side revision this month to the 2023/24 U.S. rice balance sheet is a 1.0-million hundredweight (cwt) increase in the import forecast to a record 40.0 million cwt, which raised total supplies 1.0 million cwt to 289.9 million. On the use side, there is a 2.0-million cwt increase in long-grain exports that is fully offset by a 2.0-million cwt reduction in medium- and short-grain exports, with total exports remaining forecast at 86.0 million cwt. By type, 2023/24 U.S. rough- rice exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 29.0 million, while milled-rice exports were lowered 2.0 million cwt to 57.0 million. Ending stocks of all rice are raised 1.0 million cwt to 41.9 million cwt, up almost 39 percent from a year earlier. Season-average farm-price (SAFP) forecasts for 2023/24 are raised for both long-grain and for southern medium- and short-grain rice, which increased the U.S. all-rice SAFP 50 cents to $17.80 per cwt. 

The only supply-side revision this month to the 2023/24 U.S. rice balance sheet is a 1.0-million hundredweight (cwt) increase in the import forecast to a record 40.0 million cwt, up fractionally from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for all of the upward revision in imports, with long-grain imports raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 33.0 million, more than 3 percent above a year earlier. 

The upward revision in long-grain imports is based on August–October U.S. Census Bureau reported imports and expectations regarding imports the remainder of the marketing year. Through October, the United States imported 276,853 tons (product-weight) of long-grain rice, up more than 3 percent from a year earlier. Thailand and India have accounted for most of this year’s faster pace of long-grain imports. Nearly all of the long-grain shipments from Thailand and India are aromatic varieties not currently grown in the United States. Brazil is the next largest supplier of long-grain rice to the United States, shipping mostly broken kernels to the United States. 

U.S. 2023/24 medium- and short-grain imports remain forecast at 7.0 million cwt, down 13 percent from the year earlier record-high. Through October, the United States had imported 61,023 tons (product-weight) of medium- and short-grain rice, down almost 2 percent from a year earlier. China is the largest supplier of medium- and short-grain rice to the United States, followed by Thailand and then India. Nearly all of the imports from China are purchased by Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory. Through October, China has provided one 21,000-ton shipment to Puerto Rico, with three more such shipments expected by July 2024. Italy regularly ships much smaller quantities of its arborio rice to the United States. 

U.S. 2023/24 rice production remains forecast at 219.7 million cwt, 37 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain production remains forecast at 152.1 million cwt, up 19 percent from last year and the largest since 2020/21. Combined medium- and short-grain production remains forecast at 67.6 million cwt, the largest since the 1981/82 record of 72.3 million cwt. This year’s substantial expansion in medium- and short-grain production is primarily due to drought recovery in California, as well as increased plantings in the South. 

The higher import forecast raised total supplies 1.0 million cwt to 289.9 million, 21 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain accounted for all of the upward revision in supply, raised 1.0 million cwt to 206.2 million cwt, 12 percent above a year earlier. 

U.S. 2023/24 Long-Grain Export Forecast Raised 2.0 Million Cwt to 61.0 Million 

Total U.S. rice exports for 2023/24 remain forecast at 86.0 million hundredweight (cwt), 34 percent above a year earlier and the highest since 2020/21. However, there is a 2.0-million cwt shift to long-grain exports from medium- and short-grain exports and a 2.0-million cwt shift to rough-rice exports from milled-rice exports. 

The current U.S. long-grain export forecast of 61.0 million cwt is 22 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s upward revision is based on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments through November, and expectations regarding sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. Sales to Mexico—the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice—are up sharply from last year’s abnormally low level, mostly due to larger supplies and more competitive prices. Long-grain sales to Iraq, Venezuela, Senegal, Haiti, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, and Nicaragua are also well ahead of a year earlier. In early November, the United States sold 35,000 tons of long-grain milled rice to Senegal, the first significant sales since June 2017. For all U.S. markets, larger supplies and more competitive prices are behind this year’s faster pace of U.S. long-grain exports. 

The 2023/24 U.S. medium- and short-grain export forecast is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 25.0 million, still 73 percent larger than a year earlier but below the 2021/22 pre-California drought level of 28.5 million. The downward revision is based on weaker-than-expected sales and shipments through November to Northeast Asia, the largest export market for U.S. medium- and short-grain rice. Although sales and shipments to Japan—the largest buyer of U.S. medium- and short-grain rice—were slightly ahead of a year ago through November, they remain below pre-California drought levels. Sales to Northeast Asia were limited in 2022/23 by a second- 

consecutive drought-reduced harvest in California. In 2023/24, a recently completed bumper California harvest is expected to eventually boost U.S. exports, as prices for California milled rice have already dropped more than 40 percent since mid-September. 

The U.S. rough-rice export forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 29.0 million, up 60 percent from a year earlier. The upward revision is based on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments through November, and expectations regarding sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. Stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to Mexico account for most this month’s upward revision in rough-rice exports. Mexico, Central America, and Venezuela account for nearly all of the expected year-to-year increase. In 2022/23, the United States lost much of its market share in Mexico to South American suppliers, mostly Brazil, due to their more competitive prices and also partly due to temporarily lower tariff rates for South American suppliers to Mexico. 

The 2023/24 U.S. milled rice export forecast was lowered 2.0 million cwt to 57.0 million cwt, still 23 percent larger than a year earlier. The downward revision was based on weaker-than- expected sales through November to Northeast Asia, the largest market for U.S. milled-rice exports. The Middle East, Haiti, and Canada are the next three largest markets for U.S. milled rice. Larger supplies and more competitive prices are expected to boost U.S. milled-rice exports in 2023/24. 

The U.S. all-rice season-average farm-price (SAFP) forecast for 2023/24 is raised 50 cents to $17.80 per cwt, 8 percent below the year-earlier record-high. The 2023/24 upward revision is based on a 50-cent increase in the long-grain SAFP to $16.00 per cwt and a $1.00 increase in the southern medium- and short-grain SAFP to $17.50 per cwt. The increases for both classes of rice are identical to the increases made last month. The higher southern medium- and short- grain SAFP raised the U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP 30 cents to $23.30 per cwt. ∆