Consumers See Better Prices In 2023, Despite Ongoing Challenges For The Poultry Industry

JESSICA WESSON 

FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS

Despite the ongoing challenge of avian influenza and recent plant closures, the poultry industry bounced back from a difficult 2022, resulting in lower chicken, turkey and egg prices for consumers in 2023.

Jada Thompson, assistant professor of agricultural economics and agribusiness for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said 2023 brought some relief to poultry producers, even while noting some difficulties.

“Producers had an easing of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks across the United States compared to 2022,” Thompson said. “We had strong bird placements, but broiler slaughter went down slightly. The plant closures across the United States reduced the slaughter capacity. However, across the year, overall poultry production was up compared to last year, with a slight dip in that trend in the fourth quarter.”

HPAI woes continue

The HPAI outbreak that began last year has become the worst outbreak of the deadly virus in the United States. As of Dec. 14, HPAI affected 426 commercial flocks, 586 backyard flocks and more than 72.5 million birds, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.

The first case of avian influenza detected in Arkansas this year was reported on Oct. 31 in a Madison County commercial broiler chicken flock of 31,600 birds. Since then, three more commercial flocks have reported positive for HPAI: two flocks in Carroll County and one in Johnson County. In Arkansas, 255,100 commercial birds were affected in 2023, compared to 56,000 in 2022.

Thompson said that broiler production had a strong start to the year but experienced a slowdown in August, in part because of plant closures.

“This is likely driven by changes in production capacity, shifting technology demands of the industry and continued HPAI pressures affecting domestic and international markets,” she said. 

In the face of the ongoing outbreak, poultry science researchers and educators from across the Americas converged in Arkansas in October for the two-day International Avian Influenza Summit. The summit, hosted by the Division of Agriculture’s Center of Excellence for Poultry Science and the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, brought poultry experts together to discuss efforts to manage the spread of HPAI.

Prices going down

Thompson noted that in spite of these pressures, prices were down compared to 2022.  

“This was driven by increased supply,” Thompson said. “While HPAI still affected flocks across the country, the number of farms affected was substantially lower than last year, meaning supplies were able to recover. 

“For example, egg prices were up by 145 percent in 2022 but are down 29 percent in 2023, year-over-year,” she said. “We saw good recovery in supplies, placements, hatching and sales for eggs. We rounded out the year in a much healthier place.

“We are seeing similar impacts in broiler and turkey prices as well,” she said.

Thompson said that an increased supply of turkey helped bring prices down in time for the holiday season. 

“2022 was a hard year due to HPAI and inflationary pressures. Good supplies led into the 2023 holiday season, making Thanksgiving dinner more affordable this year,” Thompson said.

Arkansas is third in national ranking of turkey production, according to the latest USDA Turkeys Raised report.

Plant closures

Thompson said that poultry processing plant closures negatively affected growers in 2023. 

“This impacted producers that were under contract, those that wanted to go under contract, as well as plant labor and customers,” Thompson said. “These plants weren’t operating at full capacity, but they were a source of income for Arkansans.”

She explained that many growers were able to get a new contract, but some were not so fortunate. 

“There were some grower contracts that were bought out and had to look for a different integrator or get out of the poultry business,” Thompson said. “This impacts farm lenders and local communities. 

“We are still seeing strong production numbers for Arkansas and should continue to be a national leader for broiler production,” she said. ∆

JESSICA WESSON: University of Arkansas