Assessment Time
DR. TERESA STECKLER
SIMPSON, ILLINOIS
There are many aspects of farming that cannot be controlled - the biggest would be weather. The only thing one can do is develop contingency plans and hope that those plans do their job. But how many would have thought to develop a 5 year (or longer) contingency plan for your pastures? So what I write next many may say “She has said that so many times.” Yep and I will keep reminding livestock producers because right now is the time to critically assess pastures and hay meadows, hay storage, and future alternative feedstuffs sources to then make critical decisions. So why I am bringing up pasture care/health again? Give me a moment to get there.
Essentially at least the last 5 years have not been the best for pastures – too dry in fall and/or too wet and cool in the spring resulting in overgrazing and little opportunity for pasture forages to recover. So, this fall has been rather mild and mostly dry; some areas did receive some rains while others did not but the effect was short-lived. Many pastures would score poorly when using the USDA’s Guide to Pasture Condition Scoring (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/pasture-resources).
This pasture scoring method takes into account several key aspects of your pasture – desirable plants, percent legumes, live plant cover, plant diversity, soil cover, livestock concentration areas, compaction and regeneration, plant vigor, and pasture erosion. Just from my farm visits and driving to and from various places in Illinois and Missouri, many pastures have too many undesirable plants beginning to take over, plant cover of the soil surface is bad due to over grazing, plant diversity is decreasing, little plant reside as soil cover (important to slow evaporation and maintain soil temperatures), and erosion.
In addition, the current US drought monitor map clearly shows that the heart of the US is abnormally dry with areas of severe drought (especially in central Illinois and Missouri). Now the weather experts say a strong El Niño has developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean!
According to a November update released by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a strong El Niño can potentially affect snow, rain and temperatures compared to last winter in the U.S. The report further says the following: 1) "Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean were indicative of a strong El Niño, with anomalies increasing in the central and east-central Pacific in the past month."; 2) “El Niño conditions of any strength will continue through the spring and there is a 55% chance that the ongoing strong El Niño conditions will persist through the first three months of 2024”; and 3) “There is also a 35% chance that El Niño could strengthen even further and become historically strong, or a so-called super El Niño, during the November through January period.”
What does that typically mean for the Midwest? NOAA maps suggest: 1) less snow; and 2) based on data from November through April during stronger El Niños since 1950, maybe normal or slightly above precipitation. The wetter areas tend to be the deep south from coast to coast. That’s if the El Niño behaves and doesn’t deviate from the average like in winter of 2009-2010 where the winter was much colder than expected during a strong El Niño.
However, according to the weather experts there are two other forces that can nullify a strong El Niño – a polar vortex or Greenland blocking. According to NOAA a polar vortex is a “band of strong westerly winds that forms in the stratosphere between about 10 and 30 miles above the North Pole every winter and the stronger the winds, the more the air inside is isolated from warmer latitudes, and the colder it gets.” Depending on the polar jet stream and other factors, that cold can dip deep into the US and bring extreme winter weather (polar vortex) to the U.S. Greenland blocking occurs when high pressure forms near Greenland thus blocking the west-to-east flow of the jet stream which forces it to plunge southward into the eastern U.S. delivering cold air from Canada.
So, what is the take home message after all that? I am not sure, all this could change because there are so many variables that can impact weather. But, my guts says we will probably not receive enough moisture to recover from the below normal soil moisture that we have now in our pastures. Even if we do get good rains, much may run off due to soil exposure. Pastures are hurting and many have been for several years. Overgrazing in many areas has caused weeds to come back and pressure valuable grasses. In addition, hay supplies were tight for many this past year and on top of that feeding hay early due to poor pasture conditions certainly did not help. What can be done from a management perspective to help these pastures? That will be the topic for the next article. Have a wonderful holiday! ∆
DR. TERESA STECKLER: Extension Specialist, Animal Systems/Beef, Dixon Springs Agricultural Center