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Yield Decline Partly Due To Area Shifts By Country
Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 476.8 million tons (milled basis), down 1.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but up almost 2 percent from a year earlier.
There were four downward revisions to 2013/14 crop forecasts this month, two in East Asia and two in Latin America. First, China’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 142.0 million tons. Second, South Korea’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 52,000 tons to 4.17 million tons based on a smaller area estimate reported by the Government.
In Latin America, Brazil’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 0.2 million tons to 8.3 million tons based on a lower area estimate. Returns to rice are not sufficient to justify a higher estimate. Finally, Panama’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 25,000 tons to 150,000 tons based on a lower area estimate.
These downward revisions were partially offset by one upward revision: the U.S. 2013/14 production forecast was raised 118,000 tons to 5.90 million tons largely based on a higher average yield.
The 2012/13 global rice production estimate was raised almost 0.1 million tons to 470.0 million tons, almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier.
Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 474.6 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from last month’s forecast but up more than 1 percent from a year earlier.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 107.4 million tons, down less than 0.1 million tons from last month’s forecast but 2 percent larger than a year earlier.
Export Forecasts for 2014 Raised for India and United States
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at 39.0 million tons, up 0.35 million tons from last month’s forecast and almost 0.7 million tons above this year. Global trade in 2014 and the rest of 2013 will mainly be driven by strong sales to China, Iran, Iraq, and West Africa.
There were three export revisions for 2014 this month. First, India’s export forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 9.3 million based on adequate supplies and expected continued strong sales to Iran. India will be the largest global rice exporter. Second, the U.S. 2014 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 3.15 million tons based on larger U.S. supplies. Third, Panama’s import forecast was raised 15,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on smaller production.
There were two import revisions for 2014 this month. First, Iran’s 2014 import forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 1.75 million tons based on expectations of a continued strong pace of sales reported in 2013. Second, the Philippines’ 2014 import forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 1.1 million based on recommendation from the USDA Office in Manila and a weaker 2013 import forecast.
The 2013 total global rice trade forecast was raised 0.2 million tons to 38.3 million, still 2 percent below the year-earlier record. There were three export revisions for 2013 this month. First, India’s 2013 export forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 10.0 million based on recommendations from the USDA Office in New Delhi and a strong pace of sales to Iran. Second, Argentina’s 2013 export forecast was increased 25,000 tons to 550,000 tons based on a larger crop. These two upward revisions were partially offset by a 100,000-ton reduction in Brazil’s 2013 export forecast to 750,000 tons based on a slower pace of shipments to West Africa.
There were two import revisions for 2013. First, Iran’s 2013 import forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 1.8 million tons based on a stronger than expected pace of purchases from India. And second, the Philippines’ 2013 import forecast was lowered 500,000 tons to 1.0 million tons based on recommendation from the USDA Office in Manila and a much slower than expected delivery pace so far this year.
Thailand’s Export Prices Continue To Decline
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium-quality, regular-milled white rice declined 5-8 percent over the past month, mostly a result of lower domestic prices and a depreciation of the Thai baht compared with the U.S. dollar. Prices for parboiled rice have declined even faster, while prices for aromatic rice have declined at a much slower pace.
Prices for Thailand’s high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $464 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $42 from the week ending August 13. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $452 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $43 from the week ending August 13. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $463 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $67 from the week ending August 13.
Prices for Thailand’s brokens have declined as well. For the week ending September 9, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $418 per ton, down $22 from the week ending August 13. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,120 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $13 from the week ending August 13.
Price quotes from Vietnam have also declined over the past month, mostly due to a lack of new buyers except for China. For the week ending September 10, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $365 per ton, down $30 from August 6. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $87 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double- water-polished milled rice, down from about $100 a month earlier.
U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have increased slightly since early August as U.S. supplies tightened prior to the onset of the 2013/14 harvest in the Delta – the largest source of U.S. long-grain rice. For the week ending September 10, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $617 per ton, up $11 from the week ending August 6. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $390 per ton for the week ending September 9, up $5 from the week ending August 6, despite a slow pace of sales early in the market year.∆
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